Union Berlin are a few steps away from the European places and unbeaten since early December, but this could all change when they host Borussia Dortmund, who will be eager to bounce back from their miserable defeat in the Champions League midweek.
Union Berlin have every right to feel confident having lost only two of their nine home matches in the Bundesliga this season. The Iron Ones can boast their best form since the start and have not lost in five rounds in a row.
There is room for improvement, however, as their last three matches were draws. Despite climbing the ranks, Union’s defence remains a huge issue, and their goal difference is negative (24:27).
Borussia Dortmund had a difficult week following their hard-fought win over St Pauli from the previous round. The Prussians travelled to London to meet Tottenham and were forced to play with 10 men for 65 minutes after Daniel Svensson got sent off, leading to a 2-0 defeat.
In the Bundesliga, however, Borussia Dortmund have been almost flawless, only losing to Bayern Munich to date. Their defensive work has improved immensely this season, and they can boast a 35:17 goal difference after 18 rounds, which is the second-best in the league.
How the bookies view it: A difficult task for Dortmund
Union Berlin are definitely difficult to beat, and bookmakers have taken this fact into account in their analysis and odds. The Prussians have the advantage, but it is not as big as we might be used to.
Currently, you can back Union Berlin at 27/10, while Borussia Dortmund are available at 21/20. Alternatively, you can choose a draw at 12/5.
Recent head-to-head: Union Berlin have been hard to beat at home
Borussia Dortmund have certainly dominated the rivalry in recent years, but we can safely say that it has never been easy for them to win at Stadion An der Alten Forsterei.
The Prussians have won five of their last six meetings, but they have also lost three of their last away games at this stadium, including the equivalent fixture last season.
Players to watch: Brandt will regain his confidence
No player is perfect in every game, and Julian Brandt had his weakest performance of the season this week against Tottenham.
This performance is in stark contrast to his excellent form over the past two months, and we expect him to improve against Union Berlin. The young German scored at least one goal in four of his last five games before the defeat in England.
Probable line-ups
Union Berlin: Ronnow, Doekhi, Querfeld, Leite, Haberer, Schafer, Khedira, Kemlein, Juranovic, Ilic, Burcu
Borussia Dortmund: Kobel, Can, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Ryerson, Bellingham, Nmecha, Svensson, Adeyemi, Brandt, Guirassy
Anything else catch the eye?
Borussia Dortmund are definitely showing improvement in defence, but this mainly applies to their home games. As visitors, BVB have conceded a goal in nine of their last 10 games in all competitions.
We definitely expect a lot of action in the match against Union Berlin, whose games almost always include goals at both ends. This has been the case in eight of their last 10 matches.
It is quite difficult to predict a win for the visitors, especially as they have lost more times at this stadium than they have ever won. We may see a draw, with a result of 2-2 seeming quite possible.
Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.
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