Tottenham face Bournemouth in the Premier League at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this Saturday. Thomas Frank’s side have made a perfect start, winning both of their opening games without conceding a goal. A 3-0 victory over Burnley on the opening weekend was followed by an impressive 2-0 win away at Manchester City, a result that underlined their ability to defend strongly and punish mistakes at the other end.
Spurs’ early xPTS of 3.74 compared to their maximum six points shows they are slightly ahead of expectation, but the process remains strong. Their xG ratio of 65.5% across the two matches highlights a side in control, with an average of seven shots on target per game and nearly two-thirds of attempts coming from inside the penalty area. Defensively, Spurs have allowed 27 shots, eight on target and only two big chances across those fixtures, with Burnley producing 16 efforts and City 11. That balance suggests Spurs are happy to concede volume from lower-quality areas while restricting prime opportunities.
Off the pitch, the failed pursuit of Crystal Palace winger Eberechi Eze drew frustration from supporters, but on the pitch Frank has quickly settled his squad. Brennan Johnson has already scored, Joao Palhinha is making an early impact on loan from Bayern Munich, and Richarlison has looked sharp in the forward line.
Bournemouth arrive with one win and one defeat from their first two matches. They lost 4-2 at Liverpool on the opening day but showed attacking threat, registering 1.25 xG and forcing the champions into defensive errors. They followed that up with a narrow but deserved 1-0 home win against Wolves, creating 1.29 xG while restricting their opponents to less than half that figure. Andoni Iraola has been able to reintroduce Justin Kluivert and Ryan Christie from injury, while new signing Amine Adli is being eased in. Bournemouth’s strong away numbers from last season which was the third best in the league for away xPTS means they will not be overawed in north London.
How the bookies view it: Hosts are favourites
Tottenham are priced at 8/11 to claim the points, which implies a 58% chance of victory. The draw is 33/10 (23%), while Bournemouth are 7/2 (22%) to cause an upset. The goals markets lean towards an open contest, with over 2.5 goals at 4/7 (64%) and both teams to score at 3/5 (63%).
The prices reflect the view that Spurs should justify favouritism, but Bournemouth’s ability to find the net away from home means the market expects chances at both ends.
Head to Head: Spurs strong against the Cherries
Tottenham and Bournemouth have met 16 times in the Premier League, with Spurs winning 10, Bournemouth taking three, and three ending level. Spurs have scored 37 goals to Bournemouth’s 14, an average of just over two per game. While Tottenham have held the upper hand historically, recent meetings have been much closer. Bournemouth won 3-2 in north London in April 2023 and edged a 1-0 victory at home in December 2024, while the most recent clash in March 2025 finished 2-2.
In fact, six of the last seven encounters have seen both teams score, with five of those also producing over 2.5 goals, underlining a recent trend towards more open and competitive games.
Players to watch: Johnson producing strong attacking metrics
Brennan Johnson looks a strong candidate for at least one shot on target against Bournemouth. The Welsh forward has started the new campaign sharply, scoring in both of Tottenham’s opening fixtures. He has already registered two shots on target across those games, converting both into goals. That follows on from last season, where his underlying numbers were steady if not spectacular. When starting at home and playing more than 55 minutes in the Premier League, Johnson produced nine shots on target in 12 games, a strike rate of 75%. That kind of consistency makes him a solid option when priced sensibly for one effort on goal.
Tottenham’s set-up under Thomas Frank also suits him well. With Richarlison drawing central defenders and Kudus providing creativity on the opposite flank, Johnson is finding space to attack from wide areas. Bournemouth conceded four goals at Anfield on the opening weekend and are prone to giving up shots, which should allow Johnson opportunities to test the goalkeeper again.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham (4-3-3): Vicario, Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Spence, Sarr, Palhinha, Bentancur, Kudus, Richarlison, Johnson
Bournemouth (4-1-4-1): Petrovic, Smith, Senesi, Diakite, Truffert, Adams, Brooks, Scott, Tavernier, Semenyo, Evanilson
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing both teams to score and both sides to be carded has solid grounding in the data. Spurs may have kept clean sheets in their opening two matches, but the shot profile against them suggests they are not impenetrable. They have faced 27 shots already, including eight on target and two big chances conceded. Burnley registered 16 efforts and Manchester City 11, showing that even when Spurs control territory, their opponents are still generating attempts. While Guglielmo Vicario has been excellent, some of this clean-sheet run has relied on finishing variance.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have scored in both of their games. They produced 1.25 xG in the 4-2 defeat at Anfield and 1.29 xG in their 1-0 victory over Wolves. Across those matches they averaged nearly eight shots inside the box and created three big chances, showing they carry enough threat to break Spurs’ defensive record. Their away record last season also backs up this angle: Bournemouth collected 28 points on the road, ranking sixth in the Premier League away table, and their away xPTS of 31.33 was the third best in the division, behind only Liverpool and Arsenal. They consistently created chances and scored 35 goals in 19 away games, proving they are capable of finding the net in difficult venues.
On the card side, the statistics are convincing. Bournemouth’s last 20 Premier League away games have averaged 5.25 cards, with both teams booked in 19 of them. Spurs’ last 20 home matches have averaged 3.8 cards, with both sides carded in 15. Referee Simon Hooper adds further weight, showing 4.5 cards per game in his last 20 Premier League fixtures, booking both sides in 18.
Taken together, Bournemouth’s attacking intent, their away scoring profile from last season, and Spurs’ tendency to allow shots make both team to score realistic. The card data is equally persuasive, pointing strongly towards at least one booking each.
GambleAware