Sunderland v Brighton
Sunderland

Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion

, KO: 15:00 , Stadium of Light
Brighton and Hove Albion

Sunderland's impressive season is in danger of fizzling out and they need a lift when Brighton and Hove Albion come calling in the Premier League.

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Most fans would have bitten your hand off if offered the chance to be sitting 11th in the table at this stage of the campaign after winning promotion last summer.

But after such a storming start to life back in the top flight, recent results have been flaky and the Black Cats crashed out of the FA Cup to League One minnows Port Vale last Sunday.

Motivation could now be a problem for the rest of the season, with safety pretty much secured and Sunderland only having an outside chance of finishing in the European positions.

It's a similar story for Brighton, who sit three points behind Regis Le Bris' side, after they bowed out of the FA Cup at Anfield last month.

Back-to-back wins over Brentford and Nottingham Forest eased any fears of being dragged into the relegation dogfight and the Seagulls followed that up with an unfortunate 1-0 home loss to leaders Arsenal.

Performances have definitely picked up but Brighton will need to be at their best at a stadium that has been a fortress for Sunderland this season.

How the bookies view it: Seagulls to soar

I'm surprised to see Brighton and Hove Albion as 6/5 favourites for this one, given Sunderland have been so strong at home this season. The Black Cats are 23/10 outsiders and the draw pays 12/5.

Recent head to head: Not worth the wait

These sides played out a dreary 0-0 draw on the south coast earlier in this season and that was their first clash in almost 14 years. They've only faced off four times since 1991 and Brighton just have the edge, with two wins, one defeat and one draw.

Players to watch: Le Fee spirit

Enzo Le Fee has been a shrewd Sunderland signing, with the French providing creativity and cutting edge from midfield. He has chipped in with five goals and is a decent 21/10 to score or assist at Bet365.

Danny Welbeck didn't start against Arsenal but the veteran Brighton striker should return to the fold for this one. He has netted on his last two starts and is 7/5 to grab a goal or set one up.

Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.

Probable line-ups

Sunderland still have a host of injury issues, with Nordi Mukiele, Jocelin Ta Bi, Reinildo, Brian Brobbey, Romaine Mundle, Dennis Cirkin, Robin Roefs and Bertrand Traore all doubtful.

Brighton have a much cleaner bill of health, with only Kaoru Mitoma, Adam Webster and Stefanos Tzimas in the treatment room.

Sunderland: Ellborg, Ballard, Geertruida, O'Nien, Alderete, Hume, Xhaka, Diarra, Sadiki, Le Fee, Mayenda.

Brighton and Hove Albion: Verbruggen, Dunk, Van Hecke, Kadioglu, Wieffer, Hinshelwood, Baleba, Mitoma, Gomez, Gross, Welbeck.

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Brighton to avoid defeat

Brighton double chance and under 4 goals stands out.

Sunderland struggle defensively and the underlying numbers remain weak. Across the last eight matches they average 1.20 xG while conceding 1.50. They allow 7.3 shots inside the box per game and have conceded 11 big chances in that run. Across the last four matches the numbers are even weaker with just 0.66 xG and 1.83 xGA. Brighton’s attacking output is not dominant but their defensive profile away from home remains stable. They concede 1.33 xGA away and allow only 3.79 shots on target per match. Their games away average 2.57 total goals. Goal patterns also suggest a controlled scoring range. Sunderland home matches average 2.50 goals while Brighton away matches average 2.57. Brighton also average only 0.90 xG across the last eight matches, pointing toward moderate scoring levels rather than a high scoring game. With Sunderland producing limited attacking numbers and Brighton defensively stable on the road, Brighton avoiding defeat alongside under 4 goals carries strong support. .

Anything else catch the eye?

Neither side have been scoring freely of late and with the last meeting ending without a goal it could pay to bet against thrills in this one.

Under 2.5 goals only pays 4/5 at Bet365 but betting against BTTS is better at 19/20. The half-time draw also stands a good chance and that's priced at 11/10.

Sunderland stopper Omar Alderete doesn't hold back and has picked up five yellows this season. The Paraguayan is 3/1 at Bet365 to go into the book again.

Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion Betting Tips & Predictions
BTTS no
19/20
Bet365
Half-time draw
11/10
Bet365
Omar Alderete to be carded
3/1
Bet365
Further Reading
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