Stuttgart vs Freiburg
, KO: 19:45 , MHPArena
Stuttgart host Freiburg in the first of two DFB-Pokal semifinals, at a time when the Reds appear quite vulnerable. Will last year’s champions reach another final?
This year’s tournament hasn’t seen many surprises, with all semifinalists being teams from the top of the Bundesliga.
For Stuttgart, this is their last chance at a trophy after being eliminated from the Europa League, where Freiburg will soon play in the semifinals. This means the Breisgau Brazilians have a chance to achieve their greatest season yet.
The Reds played a very tough match against Bayern Munich’s reserves over the weekend, losing 4-2. The team is in very inconsistent form, having not won back-to-back matches in over two months.
Freiburg, on the other hand, are at their peak with four consecutive wins across all competitions and six wins in their last seven matches. They are also scoring significantly more goals than before, which should definitely be a cause for concern for the home side.
How the bookies view it: Huge home advantage
It’s true that Stuttgart have the stronger squad on paper and have generally performed better on the domestic stage this season. And they won the DFB Pokal last season. However, the advantage given to them in the odds puzzles us.
Bookmakers believe Stuttgart deserve 3/5 odds for a win, while Freiburg are available at a whopping 4/1. The draw, meanwhile, is priced at 3/1.
Recent head-to-head: A win each in the Bundesliga
The teams have already played their two Bundesliga matches, with each winning their home game. Freiburg, however, did so in a more dominant fashion with a 3-1 victory, while they lost 1-0 in Stuttgart.
This rivalry never ceases to deliver surprises, with the teams trading wins for years now. But the long-term picture shows six wins for Freiburg against four for Stuttgart in their last 10 matches.
Players to watch: Grifo wants that trophy
Freiburg are in good form across the board, but a few players are carrying the team a bit more than others, and one of them is team veteran Vincenzo Grifo.
The 33-year-old Italian has been involved in six goals in his last five matches. In the DFB-Pokal specifically, he has six in his last seven appearances (4G, 2A).
He’s played an average of 72 minutes per match in the competition this season, so he should have more than enough time to contribute again on Wednesday.
Probable line-ups
Stuttgart: Nubel, Mittelstadt, Chabot, Hendriks, Vagnoman, Stiller, Karazor, Fuhrich, Undav, El Khannouss, Tomas
Freiburg: Atubolu, Kubler, Ginter, Ogbus, Gunter, Manzambi, Eggestein, Beste, Suzuki, Grifo, Holer
Anything else catch the eye?
The whole world expects Stuttgart to win convincingly, but we don’t think it will be easy for them. Freiburg is a very dangerous team and in top form. What we think is almost guaranteed, however, is that there will be goals.
Both teams are capable of great feats on offense, and we don’t expect to see a boring semifinal. We plan to bet on both Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5. Additionally, none of the last 10 head-to-head matches have ended in a draw.
Additionally, we have to expect a good number of bookings, given the significance of the match. You can wait for the match to start and live bet on Over cards in the second half, but we plan to risk it with 2+ cards per team pre-match.
Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.
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