No team ever came close to beating Stuttgart at the MHPArena this season, but Bayern Munich were the last team to do so when the teams met for the Super Cup, making this one of the most exciting clashes in the Top 5 leagues this weekend.
Despite the accumulation of missteps in recent weeks, Stuttgart remain a point away from the Top 4. But all bad results came away from home, as the Swabians are not only unbeaten at home across all competitions, but they won all eight of their home games at the MHPArena.
More impressively, Stuttgart kept a clean sheet in five of those eight wins, while scoring 2+ goals on six occasions. The last team that beat them at their own ground was Bayern Munich in the Super Cup match in August. So, home team fans have a lot to worry about when the Bavarians arrive.
Every football fan must be familiar with how many records Bayern Munich broke in recent months. And while their unbeaten run in all competitions is now over, they haven’t lost in 21 consecutive Bundesliga fixtures since March.
It is hard to find any significant flaws in Bayern Munich’s performance, but we can mention that they conceded first in all three most recent league matches.
How the bookies view it: Unbelievable away advantage
There is no doubt that Bayern Munich are on a completely different level this season, but we think their odds advantage is shocking.
Bookmakers give Stuttgart almost no chance, valuing their victory at 19/4. On the other hand, Bayern Munich are available at 9/20, while the draw is priced at 4/1.
Recent head-to-head: Stuttgart have nothing to show
Stuttgart's results against Bayern Munich are terrifying, to say the least. There is no Bundesliga team that Bayern has beaten more times than the Swabians, with the number now standing at 71 wins, not counting cup matches.
And it gets even worse when we look at the home matches, as Stuttgart lost 14 of the last 15 games as hosts.
Players to watch: Diaz deserves more credit
Betting on Harry Kane is definitely tempting every week, but the odds are getting lower and lower, and we are looking for value.
The bookmakers are still offering decent odds on Luis Diaz, and the Colombian is just behind Kane in terms of goals and assists in the Bundesliga (12). Thanks to him, Bayern turned the game around against St. Pauli, and it's worth keeping an eye out for him again when the match kicks off.
When a price looks too good to ignore, that’s value. Learn how to identify it with our Value Betting guide.
Probable line-ups
Stuttgart: Nubel, Al-Dakhil, Chabot, Hendriks, Vagnoman, Andres, Nartey, Stenzel, Bouanani, Khannouss, Undav
Bayern Munich: Neuer, Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Stanisic, Pavlovic, Kimmich, Diaz, Karl, Olise, Kane
Anything else catch the eye?
We definitely think there is a high probability that Bayern Munich will win again at this stadium, but we don't like the odds. We certainly expect a tough clash and a maximum difference of one goal, so we would rather focus on the goal markets.
Stuttgart are in incredible form at home and we expect them to score a goal or even maybe goals. It is definitely worth considering a first goal in the match for the hosts, as Bayern have started to concede in the early minutes.
All 10 most recent H2Hs produced more than three goals, and Stuttgart haven’t kept a clean sheet in 20 meetings in a row. Expect Bayern Munich to score multiple goals like they did in almost every match this season.
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