Stockport County host Wigan Athletic at Edgeley Park on Tuesday night in the final round of EFL Trophy Northern Group A fixtures.
The Hatters know that victory will secure progression, while Wigan’s hopes are faint after back-to-back defeats to Salford and Wolves U21.
Dave Challinor’s side come into the contest in strong form across competitions. Stockport sit top of League One with 28 points from 15 matches, winning four of their last five in all competitions.
Their performances have combined control and consistency, underpinned by solid attacking data. They rank sixth in the division for xPTS (21.77) and post a 51.9% xG ratio, while their shots-on-target and box efficiency are among the best in the league at over 60%. That balance has delivered clean-sheet victories over Blackpool and Port Vale, and they remain unbeaten at home in seven matches.
Ryan Lowe’s Wigan side, meanwhile, are 16th in League One with 18 points from 15 games. Despite posting a 58.3% xG ratio and ranking eighth for xPTS, they have failed to score more than once in any of their last ten fixtures.
Lowe has called for more clinical edge, admitting frustration that results have not matched performances. His side drew 1-1 with Mansfield and Exeter in their last two league outings and need a two-goal win here, alongside help from elsewhere, to progress.
The sides drew 1-1 in August’s league meeting, but Wigan have not won away to Stockport since 1982.
How the bookies view it: Stockport strong favourites
Bookmakers make Stockport County strong favourites to win Tuesday night’s EFL Trophy tie at Edgeley Park. Priced at 9/10, the implied probability of a home victory is around 53%, reflecting their dominant League One form and seven-match unbeaten run at home.
A draw is listed at 11/4, which converts to an implied chance of roughly 27%. That result would leave Stockport’s qualification hopes in the balance and almost certainly end Wigan’s campaign.
The visitors, Wigan Athletic, are 3/1 outsiders, giving them an implied win probability of just 25%. Ryan Lowe’s men are without a victory in the competition and have failed to score more than once in any of their last ten games across all competitions.
For goals markets, over 2.5 goals is priced at 3/4, implying about a 57% chance that the match produces three or more goals. Both teams to score is available at 4/6, equating to a 60% probability.
Those figures suggest the market expects an open encounter, but with Stockport’s control-based style and Wigan’s lack of cutting edge, the pricing still tilts towards a narrow home win rather than a shootout.
Head to Head: Hosts hold the edge
Stockport County and Wigan Athletic have met five times across league and cup competitions since December 2023, with Stockport holding the edge through two wins, two draws and one defeat. Across those fixtures, only seven goals have been scored in total, averaging just 1.4 per game, which underlines how closely contested this fixture has been.
Four of the last five meetings have finished under 2.5 goals, with margins consistently tight and few clear chances created at either end. Their most recent encounters this season ended 1-1 in the league and 1-0 to Wigan in the EFL Cup, both defined by low tempo and limited attacking quality.
Stockport’s 2-0 away win last February remains the standout result of the recent series and reflected their clinical edge. Wigan’s only success came in this competition last December, but since then the balance has shifted towards the Hatters.
The pattern of low-scoring, controlled games between these sides supports the view that Tuesday’s EFL Trophy clash at Edgeley Park is more likely to follow that familiar script than become an end-to-end contest.
Players to watch: Mullin to be main threat for visitors
Paul Mullin looks a smart anytime goal scorer bet for Wigan ahead of the Stockport game. His numbers show clear attacking consistency despite limited minutes this season with four goals and one assist in 19 appearances, with only nine starts and 771 minutes played. That equates to a goal roughly every 193 minutes, an impressive strike rate considering Wigan’s overall struggles in front of goal.
Mullin has scored in three different competitions already, including in the EFL Cup win over Notts County and league fixtures against Lincoln and Bolton, underlining his ability to deliver in tight games and varied match situations. His shot output is steady too, with multiple efforts on target in several appearances, and he remains one of the few Wigan players to consistently test goalkeepers.
He also carries penalty responsibility, further strengthening his scoring appeal in what should be a competitive but low-margin contest. Mullin’s sharp positioning, quick reactions inside the box, and composure under pressure make him Wigan’s most reliable source of a goal.
Given his finishing efficiency and role at the heart of Ryan Lowe’s attack, backing Paul Mullin to score anytime looks a logical and well-supported selection for the EFL Trophy tie at Edgeley Park.
Predicted line-ups
Stockport County (4-2-3-1): Addai, O'Keeffe, Connolly, Olowu, Onyango, Moxon, Fiorini, Fevrier, Diamond, Edwards, Lowe
Wigan Athletic (3-1-4-2): Savin, Weir, Rogers, Robinson, Brenan, Graham, Wright, McManaman, Miller, Mullins, Asamoah
Anything else catch the eye?
Stockport to win and under 4.5 goals looks a strong combination at Edgeley Park. The group situation favours Dave Challinor’s side, who require only a win to progress, while Wigan’s task is far tougher. The visitors must win by two goals and rely on other results, but their lack of cutting edge makes that unlikely.
Stockport lead League One and have shown a well-balanced process in the numbers. They rank sixth for xPTS (21.77) and maintain a 51.9% xG ratio, while their 60.2% shots-on-target ratio and 60.9% on-target-in-box ratio highlight their efficiency when chances arrive. Their home games are controlled and rarely chaotic, with under 4.5 goals in 10 of 11 matches in all competitions.
Wigan, by contrast, have taken only 18 points from 15 league games and are winless in this competition. Their xG ratio (58.3%) and xPTS (21.41) suggest competitiveness but not end product. In open play they average fewer shots and shots on target than Stockport, with a flat 50% SOT ratio and minimal attacking difference. They have scored just one goal in two EFL Trophy ties and no more than once in any of their last ten games.
Lowe’s side will need to chase the game if Stockport strike first, but their recent pattern of 1-1 results points towards another low-margin outcome. With the Hatters strong at home, superior in both xG and finishing efficiency, and Wigan lacking penetration, the home win with a sensible goal cap offers solid value.
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