After a devastating end to the year, RB Leipzig set out on a long trip to St Pauli for their first assignment of the year, while the hosts aim to extend their unbeaten run and escape the relegation zone for the first time this season.
Perhaps St Pauli could have taken more from their fairly light December schedule, but two draws and a win are better than nothing, especially when they are fighting for survival. Now comes the real challenge, which will show just how improved the team is, as their recent three opponents were all from the bottom half of the table.
RB Leipzig are a different animal, and a desperate one right now, as they ended 2025 with back-to-back 3-1 losses against two direct rivals for the European places.
Interestingly, the Red Bulls have never conceded more than three Bundesliga matches in a row, so another failure would equal a negative club record.
Considering that the team already has a negative goal difference as a visitor due to three consecutive away games without a win, their confidence may be shaken.
How the bookies view it: The Red Bulls to clear their name
It was impossible to expect anything other than a solid advantage for the visitors, who are still in the fight for the Top 4 and, until recently, were closest to Bayern Munich.
Currently, bookmakers rate St. Pauli at 31/10, while RB Leipzig are available at 17/20. If you believe the hosts can achieve another draw, it is available at 11/4.
Recent head-to-head: No winner in the same venue last year
St. Pauli reached the Bundesliga nearly two years ago, facing RB Leipzig three times in their first season. One of the matches was for the DFB Pokal.
Unfortunately for the hosts, they failed to win any of the three matches. However, it should be noted that the equivalent match ended 0-0, so it is not out of the question that they will be able to hold RB Leipzig again.
Players to watch: Baumgartner is a name to remember
RB Leipzig may be losing, but Christoph Baumgartner continues to shine. The 26-year-old Austrian is definitely having the season of his career, already having more goal contributions than in any previous season.
More importantly, almost half of his goals and assists have come in recent games. Baumgartner has scored three goals and provided three assists in his last four games for the team.
Probable line-ups
St Pauli: Vasilj, Smith, Wahl, Mets, Pyrka, Sands, Fujita, Oppie, Irvine, Sinani, Lage
RB Leipzig: Gulacsi, Baku, Orban, Lukeba, Raum, Ouedraogo, Seiwald, Baumgartner, Harder, Romulo, Gomis
Anything else catch the eye?
We have an interesting pair in this matchup. St Pauli have the tied-weakest attack in the league with just 13 goals in 15 rounds, while RB Leipzig have the third-best attack with 30 goals scored or two per match on average.
Eight of Leipzig’s last 10 fixtures featured at least three goals. After back-to-back defeats, the Red Bulls can’t afford to drop more points, and especially against teams from the drop zone.
On a good day, we should see at least a couple of goals from the visitors, and they need Saturday to be a good day. We plan to back them to do just that, and since their defence has been abysmal lately, perhaps even St Pauli could find the net, although we wouldn’t risk betting on it.
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