Shamrock Rovers come into this match top of the table, holding a nine-point lead over Bohemians. But that cushion is slightly deceptive. Bohemians have two games in hand and have already beaten Shamrock three times this season, including handing them three of their four defeats. Still, Rovers have been the most consistent team in the league overall, and their home form is a key part of that.
From 11 matches at Tallaght, their record is W7-D3-L1, scoring 25 and conceding only eight. They have kept seven clean sheets at home and have let in just 1 goal across their last 5 home fixtures.
Across the full season, they average 1.83 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game, and no side has more shots on target per match than their 5.5. They are also second for both big chances created and touches in the opposition box. With eight clean sheets overall and just four matches where they have failed to score, they are dominant in nearly every area of the pitch.
Waterford, by contrast, sit 7th—third from bottom—but are nine points clear of the relegation zone. They have already lost twice to Shamrock this season, going down 3-1 and 2-0, and come into this match off the back of just one win in their last six. They have conceded two or more in four of those games and failed to keep a clean sheet in any of them. On the road they have won four of 10 but conceded an average of 1.40 goals per game, with just one clean sheet and four games where they failed to score.
Only the bottom two teams concede more goals on average. No side has kept fewer clean sheets. They rank among the bottom three for big chances created, touches in the opposition box, and saves made per match. Even though they did manage a surprise 2-0 win away to Bohemians earlier this season, that result is the exception, not the norm. With Shamrock so strong at home and Waterford struggling to contain pressure or create chances, the hosts look well placed to claim another win and maintain their lead at the top.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
The bookmakers have made Shamrock Rovers firm favourites for this one, pricing them at 3/8 (implied probability of 72%). The draw is 15/4 and a Waterford win is out at 15/2, underlining just how much of an uphill task the visitors face. Rovers’ strong home form, combined with Waterford’s inconsistency and poor defensive record, is clearly reflected in the market.
For goals, over 2.5 is available at 7/10, which suggests a game with scoring potential, especially given Shamrock’s 2.27 goals per home game and Waterford’s tendency to concede. Both teams to score is priced at 1/1, which feels about right considering Waterford have failed to score in four of their ten away matches, and Shamrock have kept clean sheets in seven of eleven at home.
Recent head-to-head: Shamrock dominate
Shamrock Rovers have a dominant head-to-head record against Waterford, winning 22 of their 36 meetings in the Premier Division. Waterford have only managed nine victories, with five draws between the sides. The fixture tends to produce goals, averaging just over three per match, and the recent trend is even more one-sided in Shamrock’s favour.
In the last 20 meetings, Shamrock have come out on top 17 times, with just two wins for Waterford and a single draw. Zooming in further, the last 10 clashes between the sides have seen Shamrock win nine of them, including all four home games in that stretch. Waterford’s last win over Shamrock is a rare exception in what has been a largely one-way fixture.
Players to watch: Burke to run riot
Graham Burke has been the most influential attacking player in the division this season. He has registered seven goals and five assists from 22 appearances, despite starting only 16 of those matches and playing just 1,349 minutes. His total of 12 goal involvements is the highest in the league, and no player has had a greater impact on their team's attacking output.
He also leads the division in shots per 90 minutes with 5.1, and shots on target per 90 with 2.1—highlighting just how often he threatens goal. With Shamrock Rovers expected to control this match, especially at home, Burke should find himself in good scoring positions throughout.
There are currently no markets available for player shots but backing him to score at any time at 6/4 with Boyle Sports looks a sensible way to play it. Given his numbers, the opposition, and the likely game state, that price represents solid value.
Predicted line-ups
Shamrock Rovers (3-5-2): McGinty; Honohan, Lopes, Grace; Clarke, Nugent, Healy, Watts, O’Sullivan; Gaffney, Burke
Waterford (4-3-1-2): McMullan; Horton, Radkowski, Leahy, Burke; Glenfield, Olayinka, White; McMenamy; Lonergan, Amond
Anything else catch the eye?
Last time Shamrock Rovers hosted Waterford, they ran out 2-0 winners in a match they controlled from start to finish. They had 62% possession, attempted 21 shots to Waterford's three, and registered six shots on target while conceding just one. Despite that dominance, they only created one big chance and did not get their second goal until the 84th minute, meaning Waterford were technically still in the match late on, despite posing very little threat.
Across the two meetings between the sides this season, Waterford have managed just two shots on target in the full 180 minutes. That lack of attacking threat underlines the gulf between the teams and matches up with their broader away form. They have failed to score in four of their 10 away games this season. While they have picked up some decent results on the road, beating Bohemians 2-1, edging Shelbourne, and drawing 2-2 with St Patrick’s, those performances have been mixed. St Patrick’s and Shelbourne sit 6th and 5th respectively. Last time out, they lost 1-0 to Sligo Rovers, who are ninth, have won just five matches all season, and have the worst home record in the division.
Shamrock, meanwhile, have kept seven clean sheets in 11 home games and conceded only once in their last five at Tallaght. With Waterford struggling to create chances and rarely scoring on the road, Shamrock Rovers to win to nil at 11/8 with William Hill looks the most sensible way to approach this game from a betting perspective. Backing Shamrock outright or even to win with over 1.5 goals does not offer much value, but the win to nil angle is well supported by the data.
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