Portugal will look to officially qualify for next summer’s World Cup in Dublin on Thursday night, as they take on the Republic of Ireland in Group F.
Portugal are on the brink of qualification after picking up 10 points from their opening four qualifiers (W3-D1-L0).
Roberto Martinez’s men won each of their opening three matches in Group F, including a stoppage-time winner in the reverse fixture with Ireland last month.
However, the Selecao conceded an injury-time goal themselves in their last qualifier, drawing 2-2 at home to Hungary, meaning they require a win in Dublin to seal qualification.
Ireland began their World Cup qualifying campaign by coming from two goals down to draw 2-2 at home to Hungary – on an evening where two of my selections landed – but consecutive away defeats to Armenia and Portugal dented their World Cup hopes.
Heimir Hallgrimsson’s hosts kept their qualification hopes alive last time out though, as an Evan Ferguson goal was enough to seal a 1-0 victory at home to Armenia.
However, The Boys in Green know a defeat on Thursday night, coupled with a Hungary success in Yerevan, will end their hopes of a top-two finish.
How the bookies view it: Portugal favourites
Unsurprisingly, Portugal travel to Dublin as clear favourites to seal all three points, with BOYLE Sports pricing an away success at just 1/3.
The Boys in Green are 7/1 underdogs to claim a surprise victory with the same firm, whilst the draw is 15/4.
Head to head: Portugal dominance
These two nations have met on four occasions in the past four years, with Portugal unbeaten in those meetings, winning three of those.
However, the pair played out a goalless draw when they last faced off at the Aviva in a World Cup qualifier almost exactly four years ago.
Players to watch: Cancelo to create more danger?
Joao Cancelo is back in the squad after missing the last international break due to injury, and you’d expect the ex-Manchester City full-back to come back into the starting 11, especially with Nuno Mendes out injured.
The current Al-Hilal man scored and provided an assist in each of Portugal’s wins away at Hungary and Armenia in September, and there’s value in the 9/4 at Bet365 for him to Score or Assist in Dublin on Thursday night.
Predicted line-ups:
Mark Sykes and Evan Ferguson have both been ruled out for this clash on Thursday, with Hibs midfielder Jamie McGrath and Celtic striker Johnny Kenny called up as replacements.
Carlos Forbs has received his first call-up and Joao Cancelo and Joao Neves have returned to the squad, but Nuno Mendes, Pedro Goncalves and Pedro Neto are all missing.
Republic of Ireland: Kelleher, O’Brien, Collins, O’Shea, Coleman, Smallbone, Molumby, Manning, Ebosele, Azaz, Parrott
Portugal: Costa, Semedo, Dias, Veiga, Cancelo, Neves, Vitinha, Silva, Fernandes, Conceicao, Ronaldo
Anything else catch the eye?
Portugal required a 91-minute winner when they defeated Ireland 1-0 in the reverse fixture, and I’m keen to back another low-scoring Portuguese victory on Thursday night.
In the last two years, The Boys in Green have lost against France, the Netherlands, Greece (twice) and England in competitive fixtures at the Aviva Stadium, with each defeat featuring fewer than four goals.
What’s more, Portugal’s three victories over their hosts in the past four years have all seen fewer than four goals – the other being a goalless draw – and a repeat pays an appealing 23/20 at BOYLE Sports.
GambleAware