Following PSG's shocking elimination from the Coupe de France, winning Ligue 1 has become a must, but the Parisians still find themselves in an unusual position, chasing surprise leaders Lens. The next challenge is a match against the last team to break PSG's dominance and win the league, Lille.
Both PSG and Lille suffered the same fate in the Coupe de France midweek, as the Parisians shockingly lost to their neighbours FC Paris, and the Mastiffs fell short against Lyon. And while PSG won the trophy last term, Lille also failed at the 1/16 finals last year.
It turns out this season will not be the usual walk in the park for PSG on any of the other fronts either, as the team still trails the surprise of the season, Lens, in Ligue 1.
Fortunately for Luis Enrique, his bench is stacked, and the Parisians will be prepared for the fatigue in the later stages of the campaign, so they remain the favourites.
Despite getting kicked out of CDF, PSG recently won both the French Super Cup and FIFA’s Intercontinental Cup, so they can already boast two trophies this season.
As for Lille, they are in their usual position chasing the leaders, but with little hope of achieving anything more than a Top 4 finish. Their overall performance is far from ideal, however, as their defence has been quite leaky this season, with 22 goals conceded in 17 rounds.
The positive, on the other side, is that their attack is the third-best in the league, and they score an average of two goals per game.
How the bookies view it: Significant home advantage
There is no doubt that PSG remain the strongest team in the league and are favourites against any opponent, but we certainly did not expect such a huge difference in the odds.
The bookmakers give Lille almost no chance, pricing their triumph at 21/4. PSG are available at just 9/20, while the draw is priced at 4/1.
Recent head-to-head: One-sided is an understatement
The difference in the odds is probably influenced by PSG's dominance in head-to-head matches in recent years. The Parisians have not lost in nine consecutive matches, winning seven of them.
We should also mention their home success against Lille. PSG have only lost once in their last 30 home games against this opponent, which happened in 2021. Before that, Lille last won at the Parc des Princes in 1996.
Players to watch: Dembele has catching up to do
Luis Enrique opted to give Ousmane Dembele more rest by removing him from the starting line-up against FC Paris, and it was clearly a mistake. And even when he came on with 27 minutes to go, the Frenchman was unable to make a difference.
He did, however, score in three consecutive games before that, and we anticipate a better performance against Lille. Dembele needs to catch up with the goals this season, as he collectively missed months with injuries and illnesses.
Dembele also has a combined five goal contributions against Lille in five personal H2Hs (G2, A3).
Probable line-ups
Paris Saint-Germain: Chevalier, Zaire-Emery, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes, Ruiz, Vitinha, Neves, Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia
Lille: Ozer, Perraud, Ribeiro, Ngoy, Meunier, Mukau, Bentaleb, Fernandez, Haraldsson, Correia, Giroud
Anything else catch the eye?
It remains to be seen whether PSG are tired or simply had a bad day against Paris FC, but it is more likely that Lille will feel the full force of their pent-up aggression.
The Parisians have scored at least two goals in nine of their last 10 games at Parc des Princes against Lille and at least three goals per game in the last three seasons.
At the same time, their defense is far from optimal, conceding in almost every game lately. We see a lot of value in the BTTS odds, while the over 2.5 line is a little lower, but still makes sense when combined with another market.
Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.
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