St James’ Park hosts an intriguing Carabao Cup third-round clash as Premier League side Newcastle United welcome League One high-flyers Bradford City. The tie takes place in midweek, and it pits two clubs in good shape but from very different levels of the English pyramid.
Newcastle come in with a mixed start to their league campaign under Eddie Howe. Their record shows one win, three draws, and two defeats in the Premier League, with only five goals scored but a solid defensive record of just four conceded. The Magpies have looked organised but are still searching for attacking fluency. Metrics back this up: their non-penalty xG is just 0.93 per game, with 0.40 against, meaning their matches are low-event and based on control rather than chance trading. They’ll see this cup tie as a chance to build momentum and sharpen their forwards.
Bradford arrive in fine form, riding high in League One. They have collected 21 points from their opening 12 games, scoring 24 goals and conceding 13, with an impressive xPTS return of 13.65 that ranks them among the division’s most consistent sides. Recent wins over Cardiff, Huddersfield, and Stoke in both league and cup underline their confidence. Bradford’s attacking play is also reflected in their 1.60 non-penalty xG per game, which is second only to Bolton in their division.
The Bantams have invested smartly in summer, strengthening depth across midfield and attack, while Newcastle’s squad has seen changes, with the exit of Isak offset by a greater emphasis on spreading goals. For Bradford, the chance to take on Premier League opposition is another step in a season already filled with positives.
A sold-out away following will travel north, hoping for an upset against a Newcastle side still building its rhythm.
How the bookies view it: Host overwhelming favourites
Newcastle are overwhelming favourites at 1/8 (implied probability 88.9%) to win this Carabao Cup tie at St James’ Park, with the draw at 9/1 (10%) and Bradford City big outsiders at 22/1 (4.3%). Goals are expected, with over 2.5 priced at 2/5 (71.4%), while both teams to score is offered at 11/8 (42.1%).
Head to Head: Only second meeting in recent history
Newcastle and Bradford have only met once in recent years, a pre-season friendly back in July 2017, which ended in a convincing 4-0 win for Newcastle. That result underlined the gulf in quality between the two clubs, something that remains just as evident heading into this Carabao Cup tie.
Players to watch: Joelinton to register
Joelinton to register 1+ shot on target looks a strong angle. He was a constant feature in Newcastle’s EFL Cup run last season, starting in all six matches, and even though he was often used deeper in midfield, he still managed to record a shot on target in the competition. His versatility means he can drift into advanced positions, and with Howe expected to rotate, Joelinton should see plenty of minutes in a side that will dominate the ball.
Newcastle are averaging more than 15 attempts per game this season across all competitions, and with the quality gap against Bradford, opportunities should come frequently. Bradford’s defence has looked solid in League One at times but still concedes over a goal per game on average, with their xGA profile showing vulnerability when faced with sides who move the ball quickly through midfield. That suits Joelinton’s game, as he thrives when arriving late into the box or testing keepers from the edge of it.
Physically, he can overpower Bradford’s midfield, and in a match where Newcastle are likely to pin their opponents back, his licence to shoot increases. Add to that his habit of testing the keeper in big knockout ties, and the single shot on target line looks very achievable. This is not a market asking for volume, it is one clean strike on target is enough, and the context of rotation, dominance, and quality suggests Joelinton is well placed to deliver.
Predicted line-ups
Newcastle United (4-4-2): Ramsdale, Trippier, Thiaw, Krafth, Burn, Guimaraes, Joelinton, Miley, Elanga, Osula, Barnes
Bradford City (3-4-1-2): Hilton; Pennington, McIntyre, Touray; Halliday, Power, Leigh, Wright; Powell; Cook, Humphrys
Anything else catch the eye?
The best way into this Carabao Cup tie may be backing Newcastle to win and under 3.5 goals. While Bradford have impressed in League One, the gulf in quality should tell, and Newcastle’s playing style under Eddie Howe points towards a controlled victory rather than a high-scoring shootout.
Newcastle’s Premier League season so far has been defined by discipline. They’ve conceded just four goals across six matches, with their non-penalty xGA sitting at 0.40 per game, the second-best defensive figure in the league. Matches involving the Magpies are low event with their combined xG per game averages only 1.33, which explains why three of their five league games have finished under 2.5 goals. When they do win, it tends to be by narrow margins, such as the 1-0 home success against Wolves or the goalless stalemate away at Villa.
Bradford, for all their attacking strengths in League One, may find their creativity blunted at St James’ Park. The Bantams average 1.60 non-penalty xG per game domestically, but against a top-flight defence their usual flow of chances is unlikely. They have also been kept to one goal or fewer in five of their last eight away games in all competitions.
Cup ties can often tighten up, especially with Premier League sides managing minutes and focusing on game control. Newcastle do not need to run riot here, just progress. Given their strong defensive structure and tendency to play within themselves, the most logical angle is Newcastle to win inside 90 minutes, with the total staying under 3.5 goals.
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