It looks like Italy will have to settle for a World Cup play-off but they will be out to keep the pressure on Group I leaders Norway with a win over minnows Moldova.
The Azzurri kicked off their qualification campaign in the worst possible manner as they crashed to a 3-0 loss in Oslo, bringing up a full house of bets for our man Mark.
Boss Luciano Spalletti then revealed he was being sacked before the second qualifier with Moldova but still managed to steer them to a 2-0 victory.
Despite all the upheaval, Italy have managed to stay just three points behind the Norwegians, with former midfield terrier Rino Gattuso now at the helm.
Automatic qualification still looks like a long shot as Gattuso's side will need to beat Erling Haaland and Co 4-0 in Milan in the final qualifier to have a better head-to-head record.
It's hard to see Norway slipping up at home to Estonia in their penultimate qualifier but Italy will be out to boost their confidence and goal difference against Moldova.
The whipping boys have collected just one point so far in Group I, against Estonia, and crashed to an embarrassing 11-1 loss in Oslo.
So it would be a major surprise if the Italians didn't end up winning this game comfortably ahead of their all-or-nothing clash with Norway.
How the bookies view it: It's all over for Moldova
With Moldova rooted to the foot of the table, BOYLE Sports price them at 22/1 for a win in Chisinau. Italy are 1/40 favourites and the draw pays 11/1.
Head to head: Azzurri on easy street
That 2-0 win earlier in Group I made it six successive victories for Italy against Moldova. The minnows have put up a decent fight in the two home matches, though, losing 3-1 and 1-0.
Players to watch: Mat finish for Italy
Mateo Retegui was Italy's main man in their last qualifier, netting twice in the 3-0 win over Italy. Despite swapping Atalanta for Saudi Arabia, he has kept his place in Gattuso's side and is just 4/6 at Betway for anytime scorer. Backing him to score two or more boosts the odds to 6/4 at Bet365.
Ion Nicolaescu has the best pedigree in the Moldovan squad, with 17 goals from 54 caps. The Maccabi Tel Aviv forward is 9/1 at Ladbrokes to score here.
Probable line-ups
Inter Milan midfielder Nicolo Barella is suspended for Italy while Andrea Cambiaso, Davide Frattesi and Sandro Tonali may not be risked as they're one yellow card away from missing the Norway crunch.
Moldova will probably set up to frustrate, with Nicolaescu having a thankless task in attack.
Italy: Donnarumma, Calafiori, Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Dimarco, Locatelli, Ricci, Cristante, Retegui, Raspadori, Politano.
Moldova: Avram, Reabciuk, Baboglo, Gherasimencov, Craciun, Forov, Caimacov, Bogaciuc, Rata, Postolachi, Nicolaescu.
Anything else catch the eye?
Italy have scored 16 times across their last four qualifiers so they should grab a few goals against a dispirited Moldovan outfit.
Combining a win for the Azzurri with over 3.5 goals pays 5/6 with Betfred while over 1.5 first-half goals also looks decent at 10/11 with BOYLE Sports.
Federico Dimarco fires in some nice deliveries with his left foot and the Inter Milan looks good at 5/4 for an assist with Bet365 if he starts.
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