A huge game in the race for Champions League qualification takes place at the Etihad as Aston Villa travel to face Manchester City. Villa’s win over Newcastle has brought them within one point of City and only two behind Newcastle in third, ahead of Tottenham’s clash with Nottingham Forest.
Manchester City’s home form has been strong, with W10-D3-L2. They have scored in 14 of their 16 home matches but kept just four clean sheets—two of which came against Leicester and Southampton. Against current top-six opponents at home, they have a record of W3-D1-L1. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of their home fixtures, with both teams scoring in 62.5% of them.
Villa’s away form has been inconsistent, with W7-D2-L7. Goals are a common theme in their away matches, with over 2.5 goals landing in 75% of them. Villa have failed to score in only four, but also kept just four clean sheets. Their record away to top-six sides reads W0-D1-L2, conceding at least twice in all three. Their only clean sheet away to a top-half team came in a 3–0 victory at Brighton.
In terms of recent underlying data, Villa are flying. Over the last four matches, they lead the league in both xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio, averaging 1.95 xG per game while conceding just 0.6. City, by comparison, rank sixth and seventh in those same metrics, producing 1.54 xG and conceding 1.02. Villa also top the league in big chance ratio during that spell.
This game promises to be open and attack-minded, with both sides under pressure to secure Champions League football. City have looked dangerous at home recently, scoring five against Crystal Palace and beating Leicester 2–0. Villa enter this game in great form, losing just once in their last 10 across all competitions—that defeat coming away at PSG, which they quickly avenged in the return leg.
Still, Villa’s Premier League away form has been mixed, with only four wins in their last 12 matches. Those came against Southampton, Brighton, Brentford, and Everton, the latter being David Moss’s first match in charge.
How the bookies view it: Both sides to find the net
Manchester City are strong favourites, priced as short as 1.85. Villa can be backed at 4.0, with the draw available at 4.10. The markets expect goals, with over 2.5 goals at 1.55 and both teams to score at 1.50—implying a 67% chance both sides find the net. Villa’s win odds suggest only a 25% chance of taking three points at the Etihad.
Head to head: Villa struggles at the Eithad
City have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning 15 of the last 20 meetings and scoring 49 goals—an average of 2.45 per game. Villa, over that stretch, have averaged just 0.8. Although they won the last two meetings, both came at Villa Park. At the Etihad, City have won 13 in a row against Villa, with an aggregate score of 39–7, scoring three or more in 10 of the last 11.
Players to watch: O'Reilly to show attacking intent
Nico O’Reilly has been impressive at left-back for City, starting the last four matches and registering four shots. He scored in his last two appearances and should have the opportunity to get forward again, particularly with City expected to control possession. Up against Matty Cash—who also likes to push forward—O’Reilly should find space to attack. His defensive duties have also resulted in fouls; he has committed five across his four starts, at least one in every game. With Villa likely to target his side of the pitch through Cash and Morgan Rogers, another foul looks likely which could be combined with a shot from O'Reilly for a decent priced double.
Predicted line-ups
Pep Guardiola is expected to rotate, with Mateo Kovacic pushing for a start after his winner at Everton. Phil Foden, James McAtee, and Jeremy Doku are also in contention, while Stefan Ortega continues in goal with Ederson side lined. Villa are likely to stick with Ollie Watkins and Ian Maatsen. Pau Torres and Leon Bailey may return. Youri Tielemans and Boubacar Kamara should anchor midfield.
Manchester City: Ortega; Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, O'Reilly; Kovacic, De Bruyne; McAtee, Foden, Doku; Marmoush
Aston Villa: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Maatsen; Kamara, Tielemans; Rogers, McGinn, Asensio; Watkins
Anything else catch the eye?
Villa will almost certainly need to score, as a clean sheet at the Etihad looks unlikely. The game could mirror their recent 3–2 thriller against PSG—open and fast-paced. City remain vulnerable in transition, conceding an average of 8.25 shots per home match in recent weeks. Crystal Palace managed eight shots despite losing heavily, and Brighton had 15. Villa created 17 shots against PSG and have averaged 13.05 shots per game across their last 20 Premier League away fixtures. Although that average has dipped to 10.75 more recently, Villa’s attacking threat is clear. With 12 shots at Anfield and 25 at Southampton, backing Villa to hit a healthy shot count looks like a smart angle.
This English Premier League match between Man City and Aston Villa will be played on and kick off at 20:00. Check below for our tipsters best Man City vs Aston Villa prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
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