The leaders in Group G have long been clear, and it is ridiculous to even talk about a change in positions after the final round. Poland need a record victory and the Netherlands to lose, so the best plan is simply to play their best and prepare for the playoffs.
Malta have been out of the race since the early days of the cycle, only getting their first win in the 7th round. But while the Reds will have to wait at least four more years to potentially qualify for a World Cup, last week’s shocking win over Finland means that winning a point against Poland would result in their best WCQ points tally ever.
However, it is unlikely that Malta will have the same luck against Poland, since their winning goal against Finland was their only shot on target and required a moment of individual brilliance. Before that moment, the Reds spent 81 minutes in defence and created almost no chances.
Poland have had a nearly flawless qualifying cycle, losing only one of seven matches so far. And if the Netherlands weren't so dominant, this group would be interesting until the final whistle of the last round.
Now, however, Poland's only chance to overtake the leaders is if they beat Malta by 14 goals and the Netherlands lose – a scenario that even the most daring fantasy writer would not dream up.
How the bookies view it: The Reds have no answer
Expectations for this clash include a comfortable victory for the visitors, which is reflected in the odds. Malta's victory over Finland has not changed these expectations, and they remain serious underdogs at 11/1. The draw is priced at 9/2, while Poland's chances are priced at 1/4.
Recent head-to-head: Malta have never scored to Poland
The hosts certainly do not have fond memories of previous encounters with Poland, as they have failed to score a single goal in five attempts. Most of these encounters date back decades, so we are only interested in the recent qualifying match, which ended 2-0. And this result could have been much higher, as Poland attempted 28 shots at Bonello's goal.
Players to watch: Lewandowski is looking sharp again
Robert Lewandowski had had his quietest WCQ cycle since the start of his career but still scored three goals and provided two assists in six appearances. His performance for Barcelona so far this season has also not been optimal, so he can use this opportunity to score more goals and regain some lost confidence.
Lewandowski provided the assist for Poland’s goal against the Netherlands and scored against Lithuania last month.
Probable line-ups
Malta: Bonello, Muscat, Pepe, Shaw, Corbalan, Satariano, P. Mbong, Guillaumier, J. Mbong, Cardona, Chouaref
Poland: Grabara, Kiwior, Kedziora, Ziolkowski, Cash, Kapustka, Zielinski, Zalewski, Kaminski, Lewandowski, Skoras
Anything else catch the eye?
This fixture is much harder to call than it should be, mainly because Poland don’t necessarily need to push for the win. And based on recent performances, we don’t expect a high scoreline. Five of both teams’ seven qualification matches ended with under 2.5 goals and we wouldn’t risk betting on goals here.
Malta played some good defensive football against Finland and we expect more of the same, so Poland will probably win this 1-0 or 2-0 at best.
GambleAware