The Bundesliga returns with a key fixture between Mainz and Hoffenheim, but the significance of the match is totally different for the two teams involved.
The 05ers’ disastrous start to the season has left them in pole position to be relegated from the Bundesliga, months after the team secured its place in the UEFA Conference League. And while they have been flawless when playing in Europe, Mainz have not won a domestic fixture in seven games, losing six in the process.
The lack of goals is at the core of their problems, as most of their defeats came by minimal margins. A win would send them to safety for at least a day, but losing again seems far more probable, as Hoffenheim’s form has been pristine.
The Kraichgauers entered the international break with a streak of four Bundesliga wins in a row, most recently crushing Top 4 contenders RB Leipzig.
Hoffenheim are within reach of that same group, and beating Mainz on Friday could place them second before Saturday’s fixtures.
How the bookies view it: Closer than recent performances suggest
Bookmakers were unable to name a clear favourite in this clash, although they gave the nod to Mainz in the odds. However, the 05ers are minimal favourites with 3/2 compared to Hoffenheim’s 8/5. Also, you can currently back the draw at 13/5.
Recent head-to-head: The Kraichgauers need a better plan this time
While current form always matters, we have to mention that Hoffenheim happen to be Mainz’s most favourite rival. The 05ers have won more times against the Kraichgauers than against any other Bundesliga regular, leading with 15 wins to nine, while eight clashes ended level.
Moreover, they haven’t lost in five home matches against Hoffenheim, and they won the last four without conceding a goal.
Players to watch: Promel is flying
It is never too late to start shining and Hoffenheim’s Grischa Promel is a great example. The 30-year-old German midfielder has been part of the team for four years, and had never scored more than four Bundesliga goals in a season.
He has equalled this number already in 10 rounds and most importantly – he scored in four of Hoffenheim’s last five games. His improvement has been key for the team’s success over the past couple of months.
Probable line-ups
Mainz: Zentner, Maloney, da Costa, Kohr, Mwene, Sano, Kawasaki, Widmer, Nebel, Lee, Hollebach
Hoffenheim: Baumann, Hranac, Bernardo, Hajdari, Coufal, Burger, Avdullahu, Promel, Toure, Kramaric, Lemperle
Anything else catch the eye?
Despite Hoffenheim’s horrible record away at Mainz, we have to back them to win on Friday, and the odds make this pick even more appealing. Bookmakers somehow backed Mainz as the favourites, although Hoffenheim are the tied-best away team in the league.
The Kraichgauers are the only team other than Bayern Munich to remain undefeated on the road, with four wins in five matches. They are also the 4th highest-scoring team in the league with an average of 2.1 goals scored per match. And eight of their 10 fixtures produced over 2.5 goals.
Mainz lost by more than one goal only twice this season, so we expect a narrow 2-1 win for Hoffenheim.
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