Luxembourg’s only goal in the penultimate round of qualifications is to finally get some points to their name, but the points may have to wait, as high-flying group leaders Germany intend to make one more leap towards the World Cup.
Luxembourg can boast some successes from isolated cases in recent times, but the nation has never reached the main stage of a major competition. And after a miserable Nations League cycle last year, the Red Lions transferred their bad form to the World Cup qualifications, losing all four fixtures to date.
Defensively, Luxembourg have outperformed most other minnow nations in the cycle, but that one goal in four rounds proves the real problem in their squad. And to extinguish all sparks of positivity, we can say that the Red Lions won only one of their last 16 fixtures and it was a friendly match with Sweden.
Germany did not allow the early 2-0 defeat to Slovakia to bring them down and won the last three matches, conceding a single goal. Julian Nagelsmann seems to be finding more and more answers and solutions with each game, but his team is far from safe in its current position.
The National Eleven are currently top of the group, but only due to their better goal difference. Slovakia have equal chances with their nine points, while Northern Ireland are also close with six points.
How the bookies view it: The Red Lions to suffer another setback
As expected, bookmakers completely ruled out Luxembourg in this clash, giving Germany an overwhelming betting advantage. At this point, it is pointless to bet on the visitors, but you can do it at around 1/10. Meanwhile, Luxembourg are available at 22/1 and the draw at 11/1.
Recent head-to-head: Germany – 12; Luxembourg – 1
Luxembourg and Germany hadn’t met in nearly 20 years before last month’s ordeal when the National Eleven crushed the Red Lions 4-0 at the PreZero Arena. Before that, the teams last clashed in 2006 in Germany’s 7-0 win.
Overall, Luxembourg have suffered some of their worst defeats ever against Germany, and have won just once in 13 clashes (L12).
Players to watch: Kimmich to bring some of Bayern's form
While the gap in class is significant, Julian Nagelsmann is sure to play his best XI against Luxembourg. But few players in the current line-up can boast a solid form, which would normally make it harder to find the best pick.
Bookmakers expect Germany to have it easy against the Red Lions, so we should see multiple players approach the target. Our personal pick is Joshua Kimmich, who scored a brace in the reverse fixture. Not only is he having a phenomenal season with Bayern, but he is irreplaceable in the national team and always plays 90 minutes.
Probable line-ups
Luxembourg: Moris, Jans, Korac, Mahmutovic, Bohnert, Olesen, Sinani, Pereira, Barreiro, Dardari, Muratovic
Germany: Baumann, Kimmich, Tah, Anton, Raum, Pavlovic, Goretzka, Sane, Wirtz, Gnabry, Woltemade
Anything else catch the eye?
Luxembourg’s strong period is in the past now and we wouldn’t bet on them scoring a goal against this reformed German national team. Nagelsmann has improved the defence significantly and even if the Germans experience difficulties scoring, we expect their defence to be watertight.
Among other things, Luxembourg have only suffered defeats by a 2+ goal margin twice in their last 15 home matches. And Germany’s last five away games ended with less than 3.5 goals.
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