The EFL Cup serves up a fascinating clash at Anfield as Liverpool host Southampton, with both sides heading into the game in strong form. Scheduled for midweek under the lights, it gives Arne Slot’s Liverpool another opportunity to rotate and yet maintain momentum, while Will Still's Southampton look to test themselves against Premier League opposition after an indifferent start in the Championship.
Liverpool’s early season has been flawless domestically. Five wins from five in the Premier League, including narrow victories over Arsenal and Everton, have reinforced their status as champions with depth. Their underlying data adds weight to that dominance, ranking third for xPTS (7.55), backed by elite numbers in both attack and defence. A non-penalty xG of 1.56 per game and a non-penalty xGA of just 0.70 put them among the best-balanced sides in the division. In Europe too, Slot’s men edged Atletico Madrid in a thrilling contest, underlining their resilience.
Southampton, meanwhile, have quietly emerged as one of the Championship’s top sides this term. They sit among the promotion favourites, boasting an xPTS tally of 9.78, the second best in the league. Their non-penalty xG of 1.96 and xG ratio of 68.8% underline their ability to dominate games. Still’s men have already beaten Northampton and Norwich in this competition without conceding, and their defence has allowed just 0.89 non-penalty xGA per game.
This fixture is a chance for Southampton to measure themselves against the reigning Premier League champions, while Liverpool’s squad depth will likely see minutes for fringe players alongside established stars. With both sides in strong defensive shape and carrying attacking threats, Anfield is set for an intriguing EFL Cup tie.
How the bookies view it: Easy home win
Liverpool are priced at 1/6 to win this EFL Cup tie, which implies an 85.7% chance of victory, while Southampton are out at 8/1 (11.1%) and the draw is 8/1 (11.1%). The market heavily favours a home win at Anfield. Goals are also expected, with over 2.5 goals trading at 1/3, suggesting a 75% probability that the match produces at least three. Both teams to score is more evenly balanced at 1/1, which gives it a 50% chance of landing.
This pricing reflects Liverpool’s dominant early season form and superior underlying metrics, but also acknowledges Southampton’s attacking threat in the Championship, where they have been among the most creative sides.
Head to Head: Reds very strong
Looking at the last 20 head-to-head meetings between Liverpool and Southampton across all competitions, Liverpool have a clear upper hand with 14 wins, three draws, and only three defeats. The Reds have scored 43 goals in that period while conceding just 15, averaging +1.40 per game.
Recent clashes underline Liverpool’s dominance. Last season they won all three encounters, 3-1 at Anfield in the league, 3-0 in the FA Cup, and 3-2 away at St Mary’s. Earlier this year, they also knocked Southampton out of the League Cup with a 2-1 win away from home. Going further back, Liverpool have scored at least two goals in 13 of those 20 meetings, while Southampton’s most memorable result in the stretch came in May 2023 when they held Liverpool to a wild 4-4 draw on the final day of the Premier League season.
For Southampton, those three victories came in much older fixtures, including a 1-0 league win in January 2021 and a two-legged League Cup semi-final success in 2017. Since then, however, Liverpool have been largely in control, winning 9 of the last 10.
The data highlights the difficulty Southampton face. Anfield has been especially daunting, with Liverpool recording routine wins such as 3-0 (2018, 2022) and 4-0 (2020). The head-to-head numbers, combined with Liverpool’s current strong form, only strengthen the case for the Premier League champions being heavy favourites going into this latest cup tie.
Players to watch: Isak to finally get up and running
Alexander Isak shapes up as a strong anytime scorer bet when Liverpool face Southampton in the Carabao Cup. With Mohamed Salah absent, Isak is expected to lead the line and carry the bulk of the attacking threat for Arne Slot’s side. A record-breaking summer outlay has given Slot a deep, flexible squad, allowing him to gradually integrate Isak following his self-imposed break over the off-season. That management should leave him fresh and primed for this tie.
The Swedish striker has pedigree at the highest level. Last season he hit 23 goals in 34 games for Newcastle, underlining both consistency and efficiency in front of goal. Liverpool are likely to dominate possession at Anfield, and with Florian Wirtz, Alexis Mac Allister and Jeremie Frimpong creating from behind and wide areas, Isak should see plenty of service in dangerous positions.
Southampton’s defensive record also adds weight to the bet. They have conceded in five of their opening six Championship matches this season, giving up more than 1.0 expected goals against per game. A striker of Isak’s quality will fancy his chances of punishing that.
With Liverpool rotating but still carrying significant firepower, Isak anytime scorer looks a strong play with BetMGM at 11/10
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Mamardashvili; Frimpong, Gomez, Leoni, Robertson; Endo, Jones; Wirtz, Mac Allister, Ngumoha; Isak.
Southampton (4-2-3-1): Bazunu; Roerslev, Stephens, Harwood-Bellis, Manning; Downes, Charles; Fellows, Azaz, Fraser; Armstrong.
Anything else catch the eye?
Liverpool to win and under 4.5 goals looks a strong play in this tie. Their Premier League season has been built on control and efficiency, rather than chaos, with only one of their five league games going above four goals. Even in Europe, their 3-2 win over Atletico was a rare high scorer, and domestically they have kept things tight with wins of 1-0, 2-1 and 3-2 alongside a pair of 3-2 and 4-2 results.
Looking at the underlying numbers, Liverpool average 1.56 non-penalty xG per game while conceding only 0.70. That defensive strength is supported by limiting opponents to few big chances as in the Premier League they allow under one big chance per match on average. Slot’s side also dominate shots on target, posting close to seven per game while restricting opponents to fewer than three. Such control reduces the likelihood of games opening up.
Southampton’s Championship data paints a similar picture of control. They rank second in xPTS (9.78), with a balanced profile of 1.96 non-penalty xG for and 0.89 against. Importantly, only one of their last five matches has gone above three goals, and in the EFL Cup they have won 1-0 and 3-0, managing games with discipline.
Both teams are well structured, but the step up in quality should be decisive in Liverpool’s favour. Anfield is rarely a venue for slip-ups at this stage of the competition, and while Southampton can compete, it’s hard to see them breaking Liverpool down more than once. A controlled home win inside the 4.5 line fits the numbers.
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