The Premier League returns this weekend, with champions Liverpool hosting Bournemouth at Anfield on Friday night. Arne Slot’s side begin their title defence after finishing 10 points clear of Arsenal last season, ending with 84 points, the division’s best xG ratio at home (69%), and an Anfield record of 14 wins from 19 matches.
The summer has brought both excitement and change. Florian Wirtz arrived from Bayer Leverkusen for a British-record £116m, while £79m signing Hugo Ekitike joins from Eintracht Frankfurt after scoring 15 Bundesliga goals last season. Key departures include Trent Alexander-Arnold to Real Madrid. The club also mourned the sudden passing of Diogo Jota in July, adding an emotional backdrop to the new campaign.
Liverpool’s pre-season mixed impressive attacking returns as they scored at least twice in every friendly but with defensive leaks, conceding in all six matches. Their most recent outing saw them draw 2-2 with Crystal Palace in the Community Shield before losing on penalties.
Bournemouth enjoyed their highest-ever Premier League finish last term, ending ninth. Andoni Iraola’s team were one of the league’s most effective away sides, finishing sixth in the away table with seven wins and the third-best away xPTS (31.33). Their style on the road was high-event, with 79% of matches seeing both teams score.
However, the summer has stripped them of defensive stability. Three of their regular back four in Milos Kerkez, Dean Huijsen, and soon-to-depart Ilya Zabarnyi have moved on. While replacements have been signed, they face the challenge of adapting quickly to Premier League pace. Pre-season form was mixed, with wins over Hibernian and Everton, a draw with Real Sociedad, and defeats to Manchester United and West Ham.
Both clubs enter with attacking ambition, but Liverpool’s firepower and Anfield record make them clear favourites in this curtain-raiser.
How the bookies view it: Hosts huge favourites
Liverpool are 1/3 favourites for the win, which implies a 75% chance, with the draw at 11/2 (15.4%) and Bournemouth 9/1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/9, suggesting a 69.2% likelihood, while both teams to score at 3/4 implies 57.1%.
Liverpool’s home both teams to score rate was 63% last season and Bournemouth’s away figure was 79%, with both teams also finding the net regularly in pre-season, this suggests the market could be slightly undervaluing the both teams to score element.
Head to Head: Liverpool dominate at Anfield
Liverpool have dominated Bournemouth in recent years, winning 15 of the last 17 Premier League meetings, with just one defeat – a 1-0 loss at the Vitality Stadium in March 2023 – and one draw, a 2-2 at Anfield in April 2017. They have won the last four encounters in all competitions without conceding, scoring 11 goals in the process, including 2-0 away in February 2025, 3-0 at home in September 2024, 4-0 away in January 2024, and 2-0 away in the League Cup in November 2023.
The standout result remains the 9-0 win at Anfield in August 2022, one of the biggest victories in Premier League history. Since Bournemouth’s promotion in 2015, Liverpool have scored three or more goals in 12 of the 19 meetings in all competitions, with Bournemouth’s best results generally coming at home. However, even at the Vitality Stadium they have failed to score in six of the last eight clashes. At Anfield, Liverpool have a perfect Premier League record against Bournemouth, winning all nine home games with an aggregate score of 33-3.
Players to watch: Cherries to continue to commit fouls
Tyler Adams and Antoine Semenyo both have strong statistical cases for over 1.5 fouls in Liverpool vs Bournemouth given their 2024/25 records and the expected match flow.
Adams committed 39 fouls in 21 starts last season, with 21 in 12 away games. He made at least one foul in 17 of his starts and two or more in 11. As Bournemouth’s defensive midfielder, he will be tasked with disrupting Liverpool’s central combinations, likely engaging Florian Wirtz and Dominik Szoboszlai in advanced areas. Away to possession-heavy sides, Adams’ role often requires tactical fouls to break up play and halt transitions.
Semenyo committed more fouls than any other Premier League player last season with 73 in 36 starts. His away record was especially telling: 38 fouls in 17 away games, with at least one in 15 and two or more in 12. Operating out wide for the Cherries, he is heavily involved in Bournemouth’s high press and defensive tracking. Against Liverpool’s attacking full-backs Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez, he will be forced into repeated duels both high up and deep in his own half.
Given Liverpool’s dominance of possession at Anfield and Bournemouth’s defensive workload, both Adams and Semenyo are highly likely to commit two or more fouls in this game.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Alisson, Frimpong, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai, Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo, Ekitike
Bournemouth (4-2-3-1): Petrovic, Araujo, Hill, Senesi, Truffert, Adams, Traore, Tavernier, Scott, Semenyo, Evanilson
Anything else catch the eye?
Liverpool’s attacking numbers at Anfield last season were relentless. They averaged 6.95 shots on target per home match and created 55 big chances in 19 league games, converting at a rate that made them near-impossible to keep quiet. Even when conceding, their offensive volume often overwhelmed opponents, leading to 14 home wins.
Bournemouth, while underdogs, carry a legitimate scoring threat. Away from home last season, they averaged 4.53 shots on target per game and produced 1.56 xG per match which was the sixth-highest in the division. They also scored in 15 of 19 away fixtures, with only four blanks all year. Their direct attacking transitions under Iraola often translated into high-quality chances against even the league’s stronger sides.
The context of Liverpool’s pre-season adds weight to the both teams to score angle. They conceded in every friendly, including against lower-calibre opposition like Preston and Yokohama F. Marinos, as well as AC Milan and Crystal Palace. Bournemouth found the net in four of five warm-ups and, with Antoine Semenyo, Justin Kluivert, and striker Evanilson in attack, they have the pace and movement to trouble Liverpool’s evolving back line.
From a results perspective, Bournemouth’s league-high 79% both teams to score rate in away games last season underlines their dual nature: capable of scoring, but also open to conceding. That blend matches perfectly with Liverpool’s profile a side that dominates attacking metrics but occasionally gives up space in behind.
Liverpool should win, but the numbers suggest Bournemouth can play their part on the scoresheet, making Liverpool win & both teams to score a statistically strong early-season pick.
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