Levante host Real Madrid in La Liga on Tuesday evening, with the Ciutat de Valencia the stage for a meeting between a side battling for consistency and the last season's runners up who have started flawlessly.
The home side come into this game with just one win from their opening five fixtures, sitting in the lower half of the table with only a single point collected on their own ground. Their performances have been mixed, and the xPTS model places them below mid-table, largely due to a high xGA figure.
At home, Levante have already conceded five goals in just two games, with their defensive metrics confirming vulnerability. Yet going forward they remain lively, having scored nine goals, supported by an npxG return of 6.5. Their shot volume has been among the higher in the league, suggesting they will at least test Madrid’s defensive resolve.
Real Madrid arrive with a perfect record, five wins from five, underpinned by some of the best defensive numbers in Europe. Their xPTS sits top of La Liga, and their balance of creating close to 10 xG while conceding less than five marks them out as early title favourites. In attack, they have spread goals across the frontline, with Kylian Mbappe and Junior Vinicius leading the charge, while defensively the clean sheet record speaks for itself.
The one setback for Madrid is the suspension of Dean Huijsen, which reduces defensive options in central areas. Even so, their squad depth remains significant, and their keeper has been in outstanding form, saving over 90% of shots faced. With confidence high and a defensive structure that is proving very hard to break down, Madrid look set to continue their strong start against a Levante side who will need to overperform to take anything.
How the bookies view it: Visitors heavy favourites
Levante welcome Real Madrid with the market making the champions overwhelming favourites at 3/8, an implied chance of around 73%. The home side are priced at 15/2, reflecting their slim chances, while the draw is available at 24/5.
Goals are expected, with over 2.5 trading at 1/2, but the both teams to score line is more finely balanced at 3/4. That tells the story of Madrid being fancied to do the heavy lifting, while there is still some doubt about Levante’s ability to break through.
Levante’s attack has produced nine goals in five games and they have the volume of shots to at least pose questions, but they will face a back line that has conceded only twice all season. Madrid’s keeper has been in outstanding form, saving over 90% of efforts, which makes both teams to score at 3/4 less appealing than the over 2.5 at 1/2.
Madrid have scored exactly two goals or more in every league match so far and with their depth in attacking areas they are capable of covering the overs line by themselves. Levante may need to rely on set pieces or counter-attacks to get on the board.
Head to Head: Madrid strong against hosts
Across the last 20 meetings between Levante and Real Madrid, the balance is firmly with the champions, who have won 13 times compared to Levante’s four victories, with three draws in that span. Madrid have scored 51 goals to Levante’s 22, averaging 2.55 per game against 1.10, with matches producing an average of 3.65 goals overall.
The recent record underlines Madrid’s dominance, including a 6-0 win in May 2022, although Levante did manage a 3-3 home draw in 2021 and even beat Madrid 2-1 earlier that year. Nine of the last 20 clashes have seen both teams score, but Madrid have also kept Levante out on seven occasions, often by clear margins such as 5-0 in 2014 and 5-1 in 2013.
The pattern points towards Madrid controlling the fixture and regularly finding two or more goals, which fits the current market expectation of a comfortable away win.
Players to watch: Mbappe the main man
Kylian Mbappe has quickly established himself as Real Madrid’s main attacking force, making him an appealing pick across multiple betting markets. He has scored or assisted in four of his five league appearances this season, showing both consistency and versatility in his output. Across those games he has produced five goals and one assist, while averaging more than six shots per match and hitting the target at least once every time.
That level of involvement is backed up by the metrics, with 4.5 xG and 1.3 xA pointing to a steady stream of chances both taken and created. He has also delivered 42 shot-creating actions and completed 20 take-ons, underlining his role as Madrid’s most dangerous forward. For shots on target, to score, or to assist, Mbappe continues to stand out.
Predicted line-ups
Levante (4-4-2): Ryan, Moreno, Elgezabal, Toljan, Sanchez, Brugui, Rey, Vencedor, Etta, Romero, Alvarez
Real Madrid (4-4-2): Courtois, Carvajal, Militao, Asencio, Carreras, Valverde, Tchouameni, Garcia, Mastantuono, Mbappe, Vinicius
Anything else catch the eye?
The market expects Real Madrid to win comfortably, but the sharper angle is Madrid to win and under 4.5 total goals. The numbers support a controlled game rather than a shoot-out.
Levante have been adventurous in attack, but their efficiency is far lower than their volume suggests. Across their five matches they have produced 78 shot-creating actions, ranking mid-table, and their goal-creating actions sit at three per 90. However, against top defences their productivity drops significantly. They have produced below 1.0 non-penalty xG per 90 in three of their five fixtures. That lack of cutting edge against elite opposition makes them less likely to trouble Madrid heavily.
Real Madrid’s defensive structure is the key. Opponents have averaged just 9.4 shots per game, with only two on target. They have conceded only two goals in five matches, despite facing sides who typically generate much more. Their defensive record is sustainable as they have allowed only 47 shots in total, fewer than 10 per game, with the lowest shots-on-target percentage conceded in the league at just 21.3%.
Going forward Madrid are reliable without being explosive. They average 2.0 goals per match, backed by an xG close to 10 across five games. While they create plenty of chances, their finishing rate per shot and per shot on target is mid-range, which keeps scores steady. Combined with a keeper saving over 90% of efforts, this produces a pattern of 2-0 or 3-1 wins rather than high-scoring blowouts.
Levante may find a goal from volume, but Madrid’s control in both boxes points strongly to a professional victory. With under 4.5 goals landing in all five of Madrid’s matches this season, the bet aligns with both form and underlying data.
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