Leeds v Sunderland
Leeds United

Leeds United vs Sunderland

, KO: 19:30 , Elland Road
Sunderland

Leeds will take on Sunderland on Tuesday, 3 March, in a match of more significance for the home side.

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While Sunderland's place in the Premier League next season is all but guaranteed, the Whites have work to do if they are to make it two newly-promoted sides to beat the drop this season.

Beating the Black Cats hasn't been an easy task for anyone this season, but can Daniel Farke's men pick up a precious three points on Tuesday night?

How the bookies view it: Leeds start as the favourites

Leeds come into this one as the pre-match favourites, which is a slight surprise given they trail Sunderland by six points in the league table. Bet365 have priced a Leeds win at 10/11, while a victory for Sunderland has been priced at 16/5. The draw, which wouldn't be a bad result for either side, has been priced at 12/5.

Head-to-head: Plenty of draws

The odds of 12/5 on a draw is a bet that many punters will place on Tuesday night, as the recent H2H record is extremely tight. Three of the last four clashes between the two sides have finished all square, including their meeting at the Stadium of Light back in December.

Players to watch: Can Calvert-Lewin put horror show behind him?

Calling Dominic Calvert-Lewin's performance against Manchester City on Saturday a ‘horror show' may be a little harsh, as the former Everton man did create plenty of chances for himself. The only issue was that he missed every single one, including a guilt-edge opportunity right at the start of the match.

The 28-year-old has had an impressive debut season at Elland Road, scoring ten league goals, so he shouldn't let his woes in front of goal knock his confidence, especially with Thomas Tuchel watching keenly ahead of his squad announcement for England's upcoming March friendlies.

For Sunderland, all eyes will be on Enzo Le Fee. The French playmaker has been their standout player this season, and his numbers (four goals, four assists) don't really do his influence justice. If Leeds can keep him out of the game, then they will be halfway to victory.

Predicted line-ups

Neither side has any fresh injury or suspension concerns after the weekend, but it's Sunderland who are carrying more long-term injuries. The Black Cats are without six first-team players, including Bryan Brobbey, while Leeds' only absentee is Noah Okafor.

Leeds: Darlow – Justin, Rodon, Struijk – Bogle, Gruev, Ampadu, Stach, Gudmundsson – Aaronson, Calvert-Lewin

Sunderland: Roefs – Geertruida, Ballard, Alderete, Hum – Sadiki, Xhaka, Talbi, Diarra, Le Fee – Mayenda

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Leeds win

Leeds have a strong underlying case to beat Sunderland at Elland Road.

They are W6-D4-L4 at home and have scored in 11 of 14 matches, only failing against Newcastle, Arsenal and Manchester City. Even in the 1-0 defeat to City last weekend they generated 1.49 xG and created three big chances, showing the process remains solid.

Across the season they average 1.50 NPxG and 12.54 shots per game. Crucially, Leeds have won the xG battle in 11 of 14 home fixtures, reflecting consistent territorial and chance dominance. Sunderland have managed that in just 2 of 14 away games. On the road they are W2-D5-L7 and average only 0.90 NPxG while conceding 1.62 NPxGA and 15.69 shots per match.

The contrast in xG control, chance creation and away record is clear. Leeds consistently create and dictate at home, while Sunderland struggle to generate and contain quality opportunities. The data points toward a home win.

Anything else catch the eye

As mentioned earlier, games between these two sides have finished all square more often than not in recent years, but beyond that, they are also typically low-scoring affairs.

No side has won any of the previous six by a margin of more than one goal, while only two of their last seven meetings have produced more than two goals. Bet365 have priced under 2.5 goals to be scored at 8/11, which represents superb value.

Leeds United vs Sunderland Betting Tips & Predictions
Leeds to win
10/11
Bet365
Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score anytime
13/10
Bet365
Under 2.5 goals
8/11
Bet365
Further Reading
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All betting odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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