There’s a massive game at the bottom of the Premier League table on Friday night as 16th-placed Leeds United welcome 17th-placed Nottingham Forest to Elland Road.
Leeds suffered only their second defeat across their last 11 matches in the Premier League at the weekend, as they were thrashed 0-4 at home to leaders Arsenal.
That was also the Whites’ first league defeat at Elland Road since the end of November, and just their third all season, but Daniel Farke’s men remain six points clear of the relegation zone due to West Ham United’s second-half collapse at Stamford Bridge on Saturday night.
Despite playing the whole of the second half with 10 men, Nottingham Forest managed to move level on points with their hosts on Sunday afternoon as they drew 1-1 at home to Crystal Palace in a gritty performance.
That result stretched Sean Dyche’s men’s unbeaten run to four matches in the Premier League (W2-D2-L0), and they travel to Yorkshire having won each of their last two away clashes at West Ham and Brentford.
How the bookies view it: Leeds favourites
Leeds United are favourites to bounce back from just their third home defeat this season on Friday night, with bet365 pricing a home success at 23/20.
Nottingham Forest are 12/5 to record a third consecutive Premier League victory away from home, whilst the draw is 23/10.
Head to head: Home a big advantage in this fixture
Nottingham Forest won the reverse fixture between the sides at the City Ground 3-1 back in November, extending their winning streak to four matches against the Whites on home soil.
However, Leeds are unbeaten in each of their last four clashes with Forest at Elland Road (W1-D3-L0), including a 2-1 success in their previous meeting in Yorkshire in April 2023.
Players to watch: More magic from Morgan?
Morgan Gibbs-White has been involved in 33% of Nottingham Forest’s goals in the Premier League this season, scoring six goals and providing two assists across his 24 appearances, providing a goal contribution in four of Forest’s last five Premier League outings.
The England international also scored in the reverse fixture at the City Ground in November, and I like the 15/8 on offer at bet365 for him to Score or Assist on Friday night.
Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.
Predicted line-ups:
Leeds will be without the injured Jaka Bijol, whilst James Justin, Dan James and Lukas Nmecha are all doubts.
Nottingham Forest will be without the injured Matz Sels, John Victor, Nicola Savona and Chris Wood, whilst Neco Williams is suspended following his red card against Crystal Palace last time out.
Leeds United: Darlow, Bornauw, Rodon, Struijk, Bogle, Ampadu, Gruev, Gudmundsson, Stach, Aaronson, Calvert-Lewin
Nottingham Forest: Gunn, Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Morato, Sangare, Anderson, Hutchinson, Gibbs-White, Ndoye, Jesus
Anything else catch the eye?
With West Ham travelling to Turf Moor to take on 19th-placed Burnley the following day, both Leeds United and Nottingham Forest know the importance of coming away with all three points to distance themselves from the relegation zone.
After seeing just seven goals scored across their opening four matches since promotion back to the Premier League, Leeds’s next 20 have averaged an eye-catching 3.30 goals per game, with Both Teams to Score paying out in an impressive 15 (75%) of them – including in eight of their last 10 at Elland Road (2-2, 1-2, 2-1, 1-2, 3-1, 3-3, 4-1, 1-1, 1-0 & 0-4).
Both Teams to Score has also landed in three of Forest’s last five Premier League outings – as well as in the reverse fixture back in November – and I’m keen to back a repeat, which pays 4/5 at bet365.
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