JAPAN and Spain faced off in the semi-finals of the last Olympics but only one of them will reach the last four of the men's tournament at Paris 2024 as they face off in what should be a fascinating quarter-final.
The Spaniards denied the hosts a crack at glory in Tokyo three years ago as Marco Asensio scored five minutes from the end of extra-time to break their hearts in Saitama.
But there was extra-time agony in the showpiece for Spain as Brazil edged a 2-1 win, while the Japanese missed out on a medal as Mexico beat them to bronze.
Japan took the bold step of refusing to call up any overage players for Paris but it has paid off so far with the Blue Samurai winning all three Group D games against Paraguay, Mali and Israel.
Spain also won both their opening fixtures but the displays were far from impressive as they edged out Uzbekistan and 10-man Dominican Republic. That secured a place in the last eight but they then lost 2-1 to Egypt to surrender top spot in Group C.
That has left them facing a trickier quarter-final against Japan and Spain will need to up their performance level to reach another semi-final.
How the bookies view it: Misfiring Spain still the favourites
Even though Japan have been more impressive than Spain so far at the Olympics, they are Betfred's 11/8 outsiders to reach the semis and 13/5 for a win in 90 minutes.
The Spaniards are just 8/15 to go through but the odds increase to evens if you back them to win in normal time. The draw at 90 minutes pays 21/10.
Head to head: Japan chasing more revenge
The Japanese managed to avenge that semi-final loss from the last Games pretty quickly as they stunned Spain with a 2-1 win at the 2022 World Cup. The only other meeting came way back in 2001 as the Spanish claimed a 1-0 friendly win.
Players to watch: Mao out to wow
Mao Hosoya came off the bench for Japan against Israel and delivered with a last-gasp winner. That should earn him another start and he looks overpriced at 4/1 for a goal with Bet365.
I flagged up Samu Omordion as Spain's best bet for a goal against Egypt but wasn't too happy when his stoppage-time consolation ruined two of my bets. It's unclear if Omordion or Abel Ruiz will start up front here so Barcelona midfielder Fermin Lopez might be a better option for a Spain goal at 10/3 with Bet365.
Probable line-ups
Spain coach Santi Denia rested a few players against Egypt and it backfired badly. He should got back to his strongest team here and Barcelona stopper Pau Cubarsi returns from a ban.
Japan manager Go Oiwa has chopped and changed a bit so far too and must decide whether to go with Hosoya up front or hand Shota Fujio another start.
Japan: Kokubo, Nishio, Sekine, Takai, Ohata, Saito, Mito, Yamada, Yamamoto, Fujita, Hosoya.
Spain: Tenas, Miranda, Garcia, Pubill, Cubarsi, Gomez, Baena, Oroz, Barrios, Lopez, Ruiz
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams have been scoring freely so this should be a better watch than that semi-final in Tokyo, which ended goalless after 90 minutes. Both teams to score looks decent value at evens at Betfred while over 2.5 goals is 5/4.
I'm expecting it to be close again though and the half-time draw looks worth a punt at evens too.
This Olympics match between Japan and Spain will be played on Aug 2, 2024 and kick off at 16:00. Check below for our tipsters best Japan vs Spain prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
