The John Smith’s Stadium is the stage for one of the ties of the Carabao Cup third round, as League One promotion hopefuls Huddersfield Town take on Manchester City.
It’s a meeting that highlights the gulf between the top end of English football and the EFL, but Huddersfield come in with reasons to be confident.
The Terriers are enjoying a strong start to their League One campaign, taking 21 points from their opening 12 games, with a positive goal difference of +8. Their xPTS figure of 14.32 is the fourth highest in the division, showing their results are underpinned by consistent underlying performance.
They have scored 24 goals already and average 1.89 non-penalty xG per game, among the best in the league. Wins over Doncaster, Peterborough, and Stevenage, plus progress past Sunderland on penalties in the previous round, show they can handle pressure in cup situations.
Manchester City arrive as favourites, despite a mixed start to their Premier League defence. They sit mid-table after six games, with three wins, one draw, and two defeats. Goalscoring has not been a problem, with 11 scored, but they have dropped points against Tottenham and Brighton. Still, their metrics remain elite: averaging 1.65 non-penalty xG per game, conceding just 0.99, and ranking second in the Premier League for total xG created. A recent 3-0 derby win over United and a Champions League victory against Napoli underline their quality.
For Huddersfield, this tie is an occasion rather than a realistic expectation of progression. But their attacking approach means they will not sit back. For City, squad depth ensures rotation will still leave a side filled with internationals. The gulf is vast, yet it should be a fascinating contest.
How the bookies view it: City huge favourites
Huddersfield are priced at 20/1 (implied probability 4.8%) to pull off a huge upset, while the draw is 17/2 (10.5%). Manchester City are overwhelming favourites at 1/20 (95.2%).
For the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is trading at 2/13, which converts to an 86.7% chance, while both teams to score is available at 6/5, implying 45.5%.
Head to Head: City win big
Looking at the last seven meetings between Huddersfield and Manchester City, the gap in quality is obvious. City have won five, drawn two, and lost none, with a combined goal difference of 21–3.
The most recent clash came in the FA Cup last season, where City ran out 5–0 winners, reflecting the gulf between a top Premier League side and a lower-league opponent. In fact, Huddersfield have conceded at least three goals in five of those seven matches, with heavy defeats including 6–1, 5–1, and another 5–0.
Huddersfield’s only bright spot was a 0–0 draw at the Etihad back in May 2018, but that came after City had already wrapped up the Premier League title. Every other meeting in the past decade has been one-sided.
The head-to-head record underlines what the odds already suggest: City dominate this fixture. Huddersfield’s two draws in seven were essentially backs-to-the-wall efforts, while City’s five wins averaged over four goals scored per game.
Players to watch: Savio to sparkle
Savio looks a strong option for a shot on target when Manchester City visit Huddersfield in the EFL Cup. The Brazilian winger has had limited minutes this season but has already produced an effort on target in the Manchester derby, showing his willingness to test goalkeepers even in short cameos.
Last season’s EFL Cup numbers back that up, with seven attempts and one on target in just 107 minutes of action. Pep Guardiola is expected to rotate heavily, and that should give Savio a starting role against weaker League One opposition.
Huddersfield concede over 1.5 xGA on average in their league games, often allowing space in wide areas where Savio thrives with direct carries and cut ins. At 19/20 with BetMGM, his 1+ shot on target line appeals. Alternatively, combining City to score over 1.5 goals at 8/11 with Coral offers another solid angle.
Predicted line-ups
Huddersfield (4-2-3-1): Nicholls; Sorensen, Low, Feeney, Roosken; Ledson, Kasumu; Alves, Castledine, Taylor; May
Manchester City (4-5-1): Trafford; Lewis, Stones, Ake, Gvardiol; Nunes; Bobb, Gonzalez, Savio, Mukasa; Haaland
Anything else catch the eye?
Manchester City are overwhelming favourites, but the betting value lies in predicting how the match will play out. One angle that stands out is City to win and over 3.5 goals.
Huddersfield’s data this season in League One points to a team that thrives in open games. They average 2.0 goals per match, with 24 scored and 16 conceded across 12 fixtures. Their underlying data matches that trend: 1.89 non-penalty xG created and 1.06 conceded per game. They do not shut teams down but instead, they attack and accept the risks. That approach, while successful in their division, is likely to open them up badly against a side of City’s quality.
City’s matches in the Premier League and Europe average over 3.0 xG in total. They have created 11 big chances in just six league games and are still top three in the league for shots on target per game. Against lower-league opposition, those numbers tend to translate into goals, even when rotating. Players on the fringes the likes of Rico Lewis, Savio and Oscar Bobb often see these matches as a chance to impress.
Huddersfield should contribute in some capacity. They have scored in 10 of their 12 matches this season and average 14 shots per game in League One. Even if they only manage a consolation, that supports the over goals angle.
With City’s firepower and Huddersfield’s willingness to attack, the most logical bet is City to win with goals flowing and therefore City and over 3.5 is the value pick.
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