Germany and Paraguay meet at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough with a place in the Round of 16 at stake. Julian Nagelsmann's side arrive as clear favourites after topping Group E with six points, although their campaign has not been without warning signs.
A 7-1 demolition of Curacao showcased Germany's attacking quality before a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Ivory Coast secured qualification. Their final group match ended in a 2-1 defeat to Ecuador, exposing defensive frailties that Paraguay will hope to exploit.
Paraguay's route to the knockout stage was far less convincing. Gustavo Alfaro's side were beaten 4-1 by the United States in their opener before recovering to edge past Turkey 1-0 despite playing the entire second half with 10 men. A disciplined goalless draw against Australia proved enough to qualify as one of the best third-placed teams.
Germany have already achieved something this group failed to manage in either 2018 or 2022 by reaching the knockout stage. The challenge now is producing the complete performance needed to mount a serious title challenge. They will have to do so without Nico Schlotterbeck, whose ankle injury against Ecuador has ruled him out for the remainder of the tournament.
How the bookies view it
Among the best World Cup betting apps, Germany are priced at 2/5, implying a 71.4% probability of victory. The draw is available at 41/10, implying 19.6%, while Paraguay are 8/1, implying 11.1%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 3/4, implying 57.1%, while both teams to score is available at 11/10, implying 47.6%.
Head to head: Neuville settled the only World Cup meeting
These nations have met only twice.
Their only World Cup encounter came in the Round of 16 in 2002 when Oliver Neuville scored an 88th-minute winner to send Germany through with a 1-0 victory. Paraguay defended superbly for much of the contest and pushed the eventual finalists all the way.
The only meeting since came in a 2013 friendly, which finished 3-3 after an entertaining first half produced five goals. While friendlies offer little predictive value, it highlighted the attacking quality both nations possess when games become open.
Player to watch: Florian Wirtz to pull the strings
Florian Wirtz has been Germany's creative heartbeat throughout the tournament. He has registered an assist in both victories and produced his best all-round display against Ivory Coast, recording 0.36 expected goals and 0.42 expected assists. His understanding with Jamal Musiala continues to drive Germany's attack, while his pressing and ball recovery remain central to Nagelsmann's approach.
The defeat to Ecuador was a quieter afternoon. Wirtz produced only 0.17 expected goals and 0.15 expected assists as Germany struggled to create after taking an early lead. Ecuador's greater intensity eventually turned the game around, prompting honest post-match assessments from Joshua Kimmich and Deniz Undav about Germany being second best.
Against a Paraguay side expected to defend deep and attack primarily from set pieces, Germany will again rely on Wirtz to unlock compact defensive lines.
Predicted line-ups
Germany 4-2-3-1: Neuer; Kimmich, Tah, Rudiger, Brown; Nmecha, Pavlovic; Musiala, Wirtz, Sane; Havertz.
Paraguay 5-3-2: Gill; Caceres, Velazquez, D. Gomez, Galarza, Maidana; Cubas, Almiron, Enciso; Avalos, Gimenez.
Anything else catch the eye?
Germany to win and both teams to score at 23/10 is the standout bet.
Germany have generated 6.76 expected goals across the group stage, one of the highest totals in the tournament, and Nagelsmann's side are unlikely to change their aggressive approach in a knockout tie. With Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz leading the attack, Germany should create enough chances to score at least twice.
The bigger question is whether Paraguay contribute. Their attacking numbers are modest, generating only 1.10 expected goals across three matches and creating just one big chance in the group stage. Most of their threat comes from set pieces rather than sustained possession.
That is where Germany remain vulnerable. They have conceded in all three group matches and looked uncomfortable defending dead-ball situations against Ecuador, with Manuel Neuer at fault for the winning goal. Paraguay rank among the better teams left in the tournament for aerial duel success and set-piece expected goals, while Schlotterbeck's injury leaves Germany without one of their strongest defenders in the air.
One Paraguay goal from a corner or free kick is far from unrealistic. Combined with Germany's attacking quality, Germany to win and both teams to score offers the strongest value in the market.
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