With four rounds left, Genoa are stranded near the middle of the table while AC Milan need to be completely perfect until the end if they want to return to Europe next season.
The season is over for Genoa as the Red and Blues sit 21 points away from the Top 6 and a whole 14 points above the drop zone. Venezia's draw on Friday confirmed Genoa's safety and based on their underwhelming form, we shouldn't expect too much from them in the remaining matches. Il Grifone picked up three wins in their last 10 Serie A games but the last one was over a month ago. Genoa haven't scored a goal in three consecutive games since then, while also losing the last two.
It is fair to say that AC Milan have played their best football in recent weeks and it is some positive ahead of their Coppa Italia final against Bologna. The Rossoneri are a whole six points behind the Top 6 right now, with just four rounds remaining. Getting to either of UEFA's competitions through the traditional route nears impossible right now, but Milan have a far easier way back.
One of the key benefits of winning the Coppa Italia is that the winner also earns a spot in the Europa League. So, instead of winning four Serie A matches and still potentially not end up there, Milan could just focus on the final and qualify with one good result.
How the bookies view it: Expected away advantage
Given Genoa's underwhelming form and Milan's unbelievable performance away from home, it is not surprising to see the Rossoneri as the betting favourites. Bookmakers give Genoa 15/4, while Milan are available at 3/4. Meanwhile, the draw is priced at 11/4.
Recent head to head: Milan have made Stadio Luigi Ferraris their second home
There are some interesting stats in this rivalry, including the fact that both sides generally perform better as a visitor. For instance, Milan often struggle to beat Genoa at San Siro but always crush them on the road. The Rossoneri won four of their last five visits to Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Given their incredible away form in the current campaign, it is easy to expect more of the same. Otherwise, the overall picture shows Milan won six of the last 10 H2Hs, while Genoa managed a single win.
Players to watch: Pulisic can make the difference
Much of Milan's successes away from home were influenced by Christian Pulisic, who was involved in four goals in the last five games on the road. The Rossoneri lack a world-class goalscorer but Pulisic has done his absolute best to help the team, scoring 10 goals on top of eight assists in the elite. Him and Tijjani Reijnders are the only players with 10+ goals this season and both seem to be in good spirits right now. Pulisic needs just three more goal contibutions to improve his stats from the previous season, which was also his career-best.
Probable line-up
Genoa: Leali, Martin, Vasquez, Winter, Norton-Cuffy, Frendrup, Masini, Massias, Thorsby, Zanoli, Pinamonti
AC Milan: Maignan, Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Hernandez, Reijnders, Fofana, Jimenez, Pulisic, Abraham, Leao
Anything else catch the eye?
Underwhelming is the best word to describe the reverse fixture this season, which ended in a 0-0 draw. But it is hard to expect a similar slow game with Milan's current form. The Rossoneri scored 2+ goals in four of their last five fixtures. They have been far more effective in the final third, although not all recent performances were ideal. But losing to Lazio, Napoli, and Atalanta is neither strange nor hard to believe anyway.
Genoa need a goal to regain some of their confidence and there is no better place for that than home. Before their recent defeat to Lazio, Il Grifone had won five of their last six home matches in Serie A, which is mainly what kept them alive this season. But they haven't faced Milan at home either. We have to back the visitors but we also envision a tigher clash. Let's stop at 1-2 and call it a day.
This Serie A match between Genoa and AC Milan will be played on and kick off at 19:45. Check below for our tipsters best Genoa vs AC Milan prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
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