The Premier League returns on Saturday with Fulham hosting Leeds United at Craven. Both sides are searching for consistency, and the data suggests there could be little to separate them.
Fulham have endured a tough start, drawing with Brighton and Manchester United before a controversial defeat to Chelsea in which Josh King’s goal was wrongly ruled out. Manager Marco Silva was furious but chose not to criticise officials publicly. The Cottagers are still without a win, and underlying numbers highlight concerns. Their shots-on-target ratio of just 26.3% is the lowest in the division, while they rank only mid-table for non-penalty xGA. Still, the fixture list has not been kind, with three difficult opponents already faced.
Leeds, back in the top flight, have collected four points from their first three matches. They beat Everton on the opening day, were thrashed 5–0 at Arsenal and earned a valuable draw against Newcastle. Daniel Farke’s side remain unbeaten at Elland Road for almost a year, although they now need to translate that home resilience into points away from home. Leeds’ xPTS of 4.07 reflects a competitive start, and they won the xG battle in both the Everton and Newcastle games.
Off the pitch, Fulham have been relatively quiet in the market, though they have placed trust in younger players such as King. Leeds have invested in depth to support Farke’s high-energy system. Both clubs have had disruption but appear to be settling into shape.
With Fulham desperate to turn performances into wins and Leeds eager to prove themselves on the road, Craven Cottage should provide a lively backdrop for what looks a balanced fixture.
How the bookies view it: Hosts fancied
Fulham are priced at 19/20 (51% implied probability) to beat Leeds, with the draw at 13/5 (28%) and Leeds out at 16/5 (24%). The goals markets are finely balanced, with over 2.5 goals at 26/25 (49% implied) and both teams to score at 10/11 (52%).
The odds reflect Fulham’s strong home scoring record but also their defensive frailties, while Leeds’ away inconsistency tempers their chances despite competitive underlying numbers. Both markets point towards a tight game with goals at either end, and both teams to score edges as the likelier outcome according to the prices.
Head to Head: Not much between these two sides
Fulham and Leeds have met regularly in recent years, with the Cottagers holding a slight edge across the last 16 meetings in league and cup. Fulham have won six, Leeds four, with six draws, and the overall goal tally stands level at 20-20. Recent clashes have gone Fulham’s way: a 2-1 Premier League win at Craven Cottage in April 2023 and a 2-0 FA Cup success just weeks earlier. Leeds did edge a 3-2 victory at Elland Road in October 2022, but Fulham also won the reverse fixture that season.
The rivalry stretches back into the Championship, where results were more evenly split, including a run of three successive draws between 2015 and 2017. High-scoring encounters have not been unusual, such as Leeds’ 4-3 Premier League win in 2020 and their 3-0 success in 2020’s promotion season. Overall, Fulham’s recent form in this fixture, particularly at home, gives them a narrow upper hand.
Players to watch: King of the Cottage
Josh King looks a strong candidate to test the goalkeeper when Fulham meet Leeds this weekend. The forward has quietly built a consistent record through the opening three rounds of the Premier League, registering a shot on target in every game so far. Across his 212 minutes, King has attempted four efforts in total, with three finding the target, underpinned by 0.4 xG.
His role in the Fulham system is important here. Operating as an advanced midfielder, he regularly pushes into shooting positions, as shown by his five shot-creating actions and six progressive carries. Despite Fulham’s tough schedule against Brighton, Manchester United and Chelsea, King still managed to test the keeper each time.
Now facing a Leeds side who concede shots from midfield runners, King’s consistency suggests 1+ shot on target is an appealing angle to keep onside
Predicted line-ups
Fulham (4-2-3-1): Leno, Tete, Andersen, Bassey, Sessegnon, Lukic, Berge, Wilson, King, Iwobi, Muniz
Leeds (4-2-3-1): Perri, Bogle, Bijol, Struijk, Gudmundsson, Longstaff, Gruev, Stach, James, Nmecha, Gnonto
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score stands out as the best angle for this match, and the statistics make a convincing case.
Fulham’s home record points directly to goals at both ends. Last season, 14 of 19 league games at Craven Cottage saw both teams to score land, and they managed only two clean sheets in their last 20 on this ground. At the same time, Fulham found the net in 16 of those matches, showing they are almost always involved in scoring. Even against stronger opposition, they rarely fail to trouble the goalkeeper.
Leeds offer plenty of encouragement for the other side of the bet. They may have conceded five at Arsenal, but they have otherwise looked competitive, limiting Everton and Newcastle to few clear chances. The underlying data suggests they will contribute here. They average 5.0 shots in the box per game, while allowing 5.67 in return. That balance means their matches tend to produce quality chances at both ends.
The shots-on-target data is also supportive. Leeds matches have averaged 4.67 shots on target total, placing them in the mid-table range, while Fulham games average 6.33 but with a significant bias towards their opponents. This imbalance makes it more likely Leeds will create enough to score, while Fulham’s ability to find goals at home should ensure a reply.
Big chances also add weight to the bet. Fulham rank 12th in the league for big chances conceded, while Leeds are consistently carving opportunities, particularly at Elland Road.
Put together, the historical home record, combined with the present shot data, suggests both sides will find the net. Both teams to score is well supported by the numbers and looks the most reliable way into this contest.
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