Earlier in the season, Chelsea looked like potential title challengers, but a poor run of form has seen them slip out of the top four and potentially miss out on both Champions League and European qualification altogether. They currently sit sixth in the table, having won just four of their last 10 matches.
Their away form this season reads: W6-D4-L6. Across those 16 away games, they have kept only four clean sheets and failed to score in five. If you exclude matches against the bottom six, Chelsea's record is W5-D8-L7, highlighting their reliance on beating weaker opposition. They have earned 31 of their 54 total points against the bottom six teams.
This underscores how crucial their performances against lower-tier sides have been—yet they have consistently struggled against stronger opponents. Of the four clean sheets they have managed on the road, three have come against bottom-half teams. Against top-half teams away from home, Chelsea have a dreadful record: W1-D0-L5, with their only win coming at Bournemouth—a game in which they were second-best by most metrics (xG: 1.77 to 0.77, shots: 19-10, shots on target: 7-3).
Fulham, meanwhile, have a strong home record: W7-D5-L4. They have failed to score in only three of their 16 home games, although they have only managed two clean sheets. Against the top six (home and away), Fulham have impressed with a W6-D2-L2 record, with the only defeats coming at Man City and Arsenal. They have already beaten Chelsea 2-1 at Stamford Bridge earlier this season. At the Cottage they have beaten Liverpool, Newcastle and Nottingham Forest and held Arsenal.
In terms of underlying performance, Fulham rank sixth for xPTS at home, while Chelsea are fifth for xPTS on the road. However, overall, Chelsea are just ninth for xPTS, whereas Fulham sit fourth.
The pressure is mounting on Enzo Maresca. His possession-heavy style of play has frustrated fans, especially in games like the recent match against Ipswich, where Chelsea went 2-0 down early and never recovered. A loss here could increase the pressure on the Chelsea ownership to consider a managerial change.
Chelsea have won just five of their last 20 Premier League matches—those wins coming against Wolves, West Ham, Southampton, Leicester, and Tottenham—all at Stamford Bridge. Since late December, their away record stands at W0-D3-L5.
How the bookies view it: Both sides to find the net
Surprisingly, Chelsea come into this match as favourites, with best available odds around 2.50. Fulham, the hosts, are priced at 2.90—an attractive value considering the form trends outlined above. The draw can be backed at 3.75. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.83, which looks solid given Fulham’s home matches have averaged 3.0 goals per game this season. Both teams to score is as short as 1.67, implying a probability of around 60% that both sides find the net.
Head to head: Chelsea strong against London Rivals
Chelsea have the edge in the head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 17 Premier League meetings since 2010, boasting an aggregate score of 23-8. Fulham have managed just two victories in that span—once at Craven Cottage in 2013, and most recently on Boxing Day, when they pulled off a dramatic 2-1 win at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea had led that game 1-0 until the 82nd minute, before Rodrigo Muniz scored the winner deep into stoppage time.
Chelsea have kept 10 clean sheets in those 17 encounters, and prior to that Boxing Day clash, Fulham had failed to score in their previous three meetings with the Blues. Since Fulham’s return to the top flight, games between the sides have been more competitive, with two wins each and an average of just 1.8 goals per match.
Discipline-wise, cards have been a regular feature in recent clashes—each of the last nine meetings has seen both teams pick up at least one card, averaging 4.89 cards per match. However, with Anthony Taylor appointed as referee—and his tendency to be card-shy in matches since the start of the year—this could be one to approach with caution from a cards betting angle.
Players to watch: Enzo to fire for Chelsea
Enzo Fernandez is expected to play a key role in Chelsea’s midfield, likely partnering Moises Caicedo in a double pivot—but with the freedom to push forward and support the attack. After a slow start to the season, where he started just six of the opening 10 league games, he has now become a regular fixture, starting 20 of the last 21.
During that stretch, Fernandez has attempted 43 shots—an average of 2.15 per game. He has consistently played the full 90 minutes, giving him plenty of opportunity to get involved in attacking phases. Remarkably, he has registered at least one shot in all of those 20 matches, and 2+ shots in 14 of them. Over his last five games, he has averaged three shots per match, hitting the 2+ mark in every single one.
He also carries set-piece potential: Enzo is in the mix for direct free-kicks—especially if Reece James doesn’t start—and is a contender for penalties depending on who is on the pitch. With multiple paths to goal attempts and a strong recent record, backing Enzo Fernandez for 2+ shots looks like a well-supported bet.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea are without Wesley Fofana and heavily rotated in midweek in their Europa Conference game to give their squad some minutes. It is likely there will be some changes from the team that faced Ipswich Town. Fulham are hoping that Harry Wilson can return from injury.
Fulham: Leno; Castagne, Andersen, Bassey, Robinson; Berge, Lukic; Sessegnon, Pereira, Iwobi; Muniz.
Chelsea: Sanchez; Gusto, Tosin, Colwill, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Madueke, Palmer, Neto; Jackson
Anything else catch the eye?
Ryan Sessegnon has had to be patient for opportunities at Fulham, but he has started the last two matches and made a noticeable impact, registering six shots with two on target. He also started against Wolves back in February, where he recorded two shots—both on target. In fact, across his last four appearances for Fulham, he has managed at least one shot on target in every game, despite limited minutes off the bench in some of them.
He’s expected to start again here, and backing him to have a shot on target at 3.20 looks like a strong value play. Fulham have only failed to score three times at Craven Cottage all season, and they should have chances against a Chelsea side that continues to look vulnerable.
This English Premier League match between Fulham and Chelsea will be played on and kick off at 14:00. Check below for our tipsters best Fulham vs Chelsea prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
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