Crystal Palace travel to Norway on Thursday evening to face Fredrikstad in the second leg of their Conference League play-off tie. The game will be played at the Fredrikstad Stadion, where Oliver Glasner’s side hold a narrow 1-0 advantage from the first leg at Selhurst Park.
Palace had expected to line up in the Europa League after their FA Cup triumph in May, but a breach of multi-club ownership rules saw them placed in the Conference League instead. Their debut in Europe was a historic occasion, marked by Jean-Philippe Mateta’s goal that gave them a slender but deserved victory. Palace’s dominance was clear in the numbers: they had 74% possession, 25 shots, and generated 2.31 xG. Yet their wastefulness means the tie is still open, and the trip to Norway will not be straightforward.
Fredrikstad, currently sitting mid-table in the Eliteserien, are punching above their weight just by being here. They have shown resilience domestically, with 26 points from 18 matches and a goal difference of +3. Their xPTS of 19.1, however, suggests they have been overachieving compared to underlying performance levels. Their xG tally of 23.0 and xGA of 24.9 highlights a team that struggles to control matches, relying instead on spirit and opportunism.
Palace will again be without Eberechi Eze, who has now joined Arsenal. His absence leaves a creative void, but Glasner’s squad still carries quality. Recent additions to strengthen the squad are expected, though for now the onus is on Mateta to provide the goals.
With a strong performance in Norway, Palace can ensure progression into the group stage. But failure to convert dominance into goals could allow Fredrikstad to dream of an upset on home soil.
How the bookies view it: Eagles favourites
Crystal Palace are clear favourites for the second leg, priced at 4/9 which implies around a 69% chance of victory, while the draw is 22/5 (18.5%) and Fredrikstad are outsiders at 13/2 (13.3%). The goal markets suggest a leaning towards goals, with over 2.5 set at 3/4 (57.1%), while both teams to score is 21/20 (48.8%), reflecting a near coin-flip on whether the Norwegian side can find the net.
Head to Head: Only second meeting
Crystal Palace and Fredrikstad have only met once before, in the first leg of this Conference League play-off tie at Selhurst Park, when Jean-Philippe Mateta’s goal secured a 1-0 win for Palace.
Players to watch: Mateta the main man
Jean-Philippe Mateta is a strong pick in the anytime scorer market for Crystal Palace’s second leg against Fredrikstad. He opened Palace’s European account with the winner in the first leg and remains the focal point of Oliver Glasner’s attack. Last season in the Premier League he scored 12 goals from 33 starts, including two penalties, and his underlying numbers backed that up with 13.5 xG and 29 shots on target. That profile shows a forward who consistently gets into scoring positions rather than relying on streaks.
In the first leg Mateta also struck the post and was at the heart of Palace’s best openings, while domestically he has already found the net against Liverpool in the Community Shield. Fredrikstad’s defence has given up 24.9 xGA in 18 league games and they struggled to contain Palace’s pressure in London. With Eberechi Eze absent, the burden to deliver falls on Mateta, making him the likeliest source of goals.
Predicted line-ups
Fredrikstad (5-4-1): Borsheim, Molde, Owusu L, Fredriksen, Sorlokk, Eid, Ohlenschlaeger, Woledzi, Owusu S, Metcalfe, Holten
Crystal Palace (3-4-3): Henderson, Munoz, Lacroix, GuEhi, Sarr, Lerma, Hughes, Wharton, Sosa, Devenny, Mateta
Anything else catch the eye?
Crystal Palace to win and under 3.5 goals looks a strong betting angle for the second leg in Norway.
The first game underlined a pattern: Palace dominated without ever cutting loose. They produced 25 shots but only five hit the target, converting one of 2.31 xG. Fredrikstad allowed pressure but kept the score line respectable, and that is unlikely to change in front of their own fans.
Across Palace’s two Premier League matches so far, goals have also been scarce. They drew 0-0 at Newcastle, then 1-1 at home to Nottingham Forest. The combined attacking return across those fixtures was 1.36 xG per game, while they conceded 2.5 xGA across the two matches. They remain defensively organised under Glasner but do not look like a side that will blow opponents away.
Fredrikstad’s domestic numbers back up a cagey game. They average 1.27 goals per match in the Eliteserien with an xG of 23.0 across 18 games. Their xGA sits at 24.9, showing they give up opportunities but rarely get involved in high-scoring contests. Only three of their last ten competitive games have seen over 3.5 goals.
Palace’s greater quality should ultimately tell, but this does not project as a rout. The absence of Eze removes their main creative spark, while Glasner’s team structure is focused on control rather than chaos. A repeat of the measured first-leg performance is the most likely outcome.
Backing Palace to win and under 3.5 goals covers the realistic score lines which means that 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1 are available to us. It acknowledges their superiority while factoring in their lack of cutting edge and Fredrikstad’s ability to stay in games without being blown away. It’s a pragmatic play that fits the data from both sides.
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