France vs Northern Ireland at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Lille on Monday evening in a friendly that represents Didier Deschamps' final chance to fine-tune his squad before the 2026 World Cup gets underway.
While the result itself is unlikely to define France's preparations, the 2-1 defeat to Ivory Coast last week exposed some defensive vulnerabilities and left Deschamps demanding a stronger response. Northern Ireland arrive with little pressure and an opportunity to test themselves against one of the tournament favourites.
Michael O'Neill's focus is already shifting towards a Nations League campaign later this year, but this fixture offers a valuable benchmark against elite opposition.
France eased through qualifying with a W5-D1-L0 record, scoring 16 goals and conceding only four. They kept five clean sheets and posted an xGA of just 3.4, the fifth-best defensive figure across European qualifying.
Their attacking process was equally impressive, creating 33 big chances, the eighth-highest total among UEFA nations. The defeat to Ivory Coast raised some concerns around squad rotation and defensive organisation, though the broader body of work still points towards a side capable of challenging for the World Cup. Ranked number one in the world, France remain among the leading contenders to lift the trophy in July.
Northern Ireland head to Lille on the back of a positive 1-0 win over Guinea despite playing much of the game with ten men. O'Neill named what was reportedly the country's youngest starting XI since World War Two and the performance provided encouragement for the future. The underlying numbers from qualifying were less impressive.
Northern Ireland generated just 5.1 xG across six matches, ranking 44th of 54 UEFA nations, while creating only nine big chances. They scored seven goals and failed to score in two of their last five competitive fixtures. Defensively they conceded eight goals from an xGA of 8.5. Injuries to Conor Bradley and Dan Ballard further weaken a squad already facing a significant step up in quality.
How the bookies view it
France are priced at 1/6, implying an 85.7% probability of victory. Northern Ireland are available at 35/2, implying 5.4%, while the draw is 13/2, implying 13.3%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 19/40, implying 67.8%.
Head to head: history points one way
France have won all three previous meetings between the sides, scoring nine goals and conceding once. They recorded 4-0 and 4-1 World Cup victories in 1958 and 1982 before a 1-0 friendly win in Belfast in 1999. Northern Ireland have never beaten France and have never scored more than once in a match against them. The gap between the squads appears even greater today than it was during those previous meetings.
Player to watch: Kylian Mbappe to score
Kylian Mbappe remains the focal point of France's attack and enters this match in excellent form. He scored five goals in four qualifying appearances, finding the net in each of his last four starts. His shot numbers underline his influence, producing 10 efforts against Azerbaijan and another 10 against Ukraine. Across his four qualifying starts he averaged 7.25 shots and 3.0 shots on target per game.
Mbappe also contributed four assists during qualifying, meaning he was directly involved in nine of France's 16 goals. His goals came from both open play and penalties, including a brace against Ukraine in November.
Northern Ireland's defence faces a difficult challenge without Bradley and Ballard. They conceded eight goals during qualifying and now come up against one of the most dangerous attackers in world football. Given Mbappe's shot volume and consistent goal threat, he stands out in the player markets.
Predicted lineups
France 4-2-3-1: Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Konate, Hernandez; Tchouameni, Akliouche; Olise, Cherki, Thuram; Mbappe.
Northern Ireland 4-3-3: Charles; McConville, Hume, Brown; Smyth, McDonnell, Shea Charles, Devenny; Dooney, Price; Reid.
Anything else catch the eye?
France to win to nil appeals based on the qualifying numbers. Deschamps' side conceded only four goals in six qualifiers and allowed just 3.4 xGA, one of the strongest defensive records in Europe. The defeat to Ivory Coast looks more like an isolated setback caused by heavy rotation than a sign of any deeper issue.
Northern Ireland struggled for attacking production throughout qualifying. Their 5.1 xG ranked among the weakest totals in Europe and they created only nine big chances across six matches. They also failed to score in two of their last five competitive fixtures.
France possess a defence built around Mike Maignan, Dayot Upamecano and Ibrahima Konate, while Northern Ireland arrive without two of their most important players.
The visitors have found it difficult to create chances against average European opposition and face a much tougher task here. France should control the game and a home win with a clean sheet looks the most logical outcome.
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