It was a blank day from the two selections on Saturday.
Alcantor was extremely well-backed, and when I saw the money arrive, I thought that we could be cooking on gas. For whatever reason, they decided to sit off the pace and not front-run after being notoriously known for being a front-runner in France. That wasn't the place to be, and Dylan Brown-McMonagle found out the hard way.
La Brodeuse managed to get the lead at Musselburgh, but she was a little too keen in the first half of the race. I thought she was going to battle on when the cavalry tried to take her on close home, but she then got tired and faded into mid-pack.
Also, the favourite of the Derby was deemed a non-runner after he ran the entire race. He had his hind leg elevated in the stalls, and that resulted in a poor start, so the stewards deemed him a NR. Total farce, especially with a 25p rule 4 given out.
Drop Dead Gorgeous 5/2 (1pt) – Navan 4.02
With a recent poor showing over 10f on good ground, that has to be the only reason why Drop Dead Gorgeous is 5/2 in this field. Prior to that, she had shown good form, and would have been at least half the price if she came to this race straight from her second run.
She won on soft ground on debut, then finished third in a Group 3 on her second run. A lot of the horses in that Group 3 ran in the Irish 1000 Guineas, and some ran good races, so the form is good. It's hard to compare the three-year-old form to the older horse's form in this race, but from what we've seen, the form of Fingerpaint and others close in the market isn't hot enough to put me off.
I think the return to a shorter trip and on a slower surface will be in favour of Drop Dead Gorgeous, as long as the rain forecast does arrive at Navan.
If anything, I am most concerned about the Paddy Twomey horse. Paddy's horses always have to be respected, as he is a very good trainer, with a solid strike rate throughout the year. Her form needs to improve to win this, but the form of her success now reads well. The runner-up of one of his races was second to the Epsom Oaks winner, so there is substance.
GambleAware