Croatia face the Czech Republic on Sunday, in Osijek as they begin their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign. The hosts come into the match with an excellent home record, having gone W10-D2-L2 across their last 14 competitive matches on home soil, conceding just 0.79 goals per game over that period.
In their last eight home games, they have recorded a W5-D2-L1 record, conceding only three goals and claiming wins against sides like France, Scotland, Poland, and Armenia. Croatia’s last 20 competitive matches overall is W8-D6-L6 record, with their matches averaging 2.4 goals and the team averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.05 conceded.
The Czech Republic sit top of Group L after three wins from their opening three games. Over their last 20 competitive fixtures, they hold a W10-D6-L4 record, with matches averaging 2.65 goals. They have scored 1.55 and conceded 1.10 goals per game during that run. However, their away form outside of major tournaments has been poor. Across their last 15 competitive away games, their record stands at W3-D5-L7, with victories coming only against Gibraltar, Faroe Islands, and Belarus. In those 15 games, they have scored just 13 goals, and if you remove the matches against those three weaker opponents, they have managed only four goals across the other 12.
Even during a successful Nations League campaign in which they topped their group with an 11-point haul from six matches, the Czech Republic managed just two points from their three away games. They suffered a 4-1 defeat in Georgia and were held to 1-1 draws in both Ukraine and Albania, scoring just two goals across those three fixtures. While there has been an improvement under their new manager, Ivan Hasek, with W5-D3-L3 record from the last 11 games, the wins have come against Ukraine, Albania, Georgia, Faroe Islands, and Gibraltar. Croatia represents a clear step up in class.
How the bookies view it: Hosts an interesting price
Croatia are priced at 4/5 to win, making them clear favourites with the bookmakers based on their strong home form. The draw is available at 29/10, while the Czech Republic are seen as outsiders at 15/4, reflecting their inconsistent away performances and poor record against stronger opposition.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is priced at 10/11, which suggests an even split in expectation between a low- or high-scoring match. This may be slightly generous given Croatia’s solid defensive record at home and the Czech Republic’s lack of attacking output away from home against quality sides. Both teams to score is also available at 10/11, likely influenced by the fact that all four previous meetings between these nations have seen both teams score.
Head to head: Both teams to score
Croatia and the Czech Republic have met four times in men’s international football, with Croatia holding a slight edge. Their two most recent meetings came at the European Championships, with a 2-2 draw in 2016 and a 1-1 draw in 2021. Across all four fixtures, both teams have scored, making it four out of four for both teams to score in this head-to-head matchup. Croatia remain unbeaten in the fixture, with one win and three draws.
Predicted line-ups
Croatia (4-3-3):
Livakovic; Stanisic, Gvardiol, Sutalo, Sosa; Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic; Kramaric, Petkovic, Perisic
Czech Republic (4-2-3-1):
Stanek; Coufal, Holes, Krejci, Jurasek; Soucek, Barak; Cerny, Hlozek, Kuchta; Schick
Players to watch: Kramaric a constant threat
Andrej Kramaric has earned 102 caps for Croatia, scoring 29 goals for the national team. He is a technically gifted and intelligent forward, known for his movement and finishing. In recent appearances, he has recorded 37 shots, with 27 on target, showing strong accuracy in front of goal.
In the most recent Nations League campaign, Kramaric played a total of 560 minutes and scored once. Despite the low goal return, he was consistently involved in Croatia's attacking play, taking 21 shots with nine on target. He recorded two or more shots in seven of Croatia's eight matches and had at least one shot on target in seven games. The only match where he failed to hit the target was the quarter-final defeat to France.
Anything else catch the eye?
Croatia have a strong case to score at least two goals against the Czech Republic in their upcoming World Cup qualifier. On Friday night, Croatia dismantled Gibraltar 7-0, producing 30 shots and 13 on target in a relentless attacking performance. In contrast, the Czech Republic recorded a 2-0 win over Montenegro, but the level of opposition and the attacking intensity on display was notably lower. Croatia's home form is highly impressive, with 10 wins from the last 14 competitive matches played on home soil. Across the most recent eight home games, Croatia have scored 12 goals, including wins against France, Poland, and Scotland — nations with stronger defences than the Czech Republic. That run includes an average of 1.5 goals per game.
Defensively, the Czech Republic have shown vulnerabilities on the road. Only four clean sheets have been recorded in the last 13 away fixtures, and those came against Gibraltar, Albania, the Faroe Islands, and Moldova. In away matches against stronger opposition, the Czech back line has consistently struggled. During their recent Nations League campaign, the Czech Republic conceded four goals in Georgia and scored only twice across three away fixtures.
With Modric, Brozovic, and Kovacic expected to control midfield and attacking threats like Kramaric and Perisic leading the line, Croatia have the technical quality and creativity to break down the Czech defence. Given Croatia’s efficiency at home and the Czech Republic’s weak defensive record away from home, scoring at least two goals appears highly likely.
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