Colombia and Ghana meet at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Friday, with a place in the Round of 16 at stake.
Colombia arrive as Group K winners after an unbeaten group-stage campaign, while Ghana squeezed through as one of the eight best third-placed teams after finishing level with Ecuador on every primary group-stage metric before advancing on the tiebreakers.
Colombia have been one of the tournament's most controlled teams. They opened with a 3-1 victory over Uzbekistan, creating 1.61 xG, before edging DR Congo 1-0 in a match they controlled from start to finish despite producing just 0.98 xG.
Their final group game ended goalless against Portugal, but the scoreline did not reflect their dominance. Nestor Lorenzo's side attempted 24 of the game's 37 shots, their highest total in a World Cup match, and thought they had won it in stoppage time before Davinson Sanchez's header was ruled out for a marginal offside.
Across the group stage Colombia generated 4.29 xG while conceding only 2.46, giving them an xG difference of +1.83, the best return in Group K. They also produced 44 shots, 12 on target and created eight big chances, underlining a side that consistently controls territory and creates opportunities without relying on moments of individual brilliance.
That profile is reflected in the World Football Elo ratings. Colombia sit sixth in the world on 2004 points, more than 400 clear of Ghana, making them one of the strongest teams left in the tournament.
Ghana have taken a very different route to the knockout stage. Otto Addo's side beat Panama 1-0 despite losing the xG battle 1.25 to 0.73, frustrated England in a goalless draw despite having only 21% possession, then lost 2-1 to Croatia in their final group game. Derrick Luckassen's equaliser arrived from a set piece and survived a lengthy VAR review before Croatia eventually found the winner.
Their defensive organisation has been impressive, but the attacking numbers remain a concern. Ghana have generated only 2.06 xG across three matches while conceding 2.51, leaving them with a negative xG difference of 0.45. They have attempted only 19 shots throughout the group stage, with just four on target, almost half the number Colombia managed against Portugal alone.
Perhaps the most striking statistic is that Ghana failed to register a first-half shot on target in all three group matches. Their attack improved after Abdul Fatawu's introduction against Croatia, but they have struggled to create sustained pressure against organised opponents.
That leaves them facing one of the tournament's strongest defensive units. Colombia have conceded only once across three matches and have looked comfortable both in and out of possession throughout the competition.
How the bookies view it
Colombia are priced at 11/20 to win in 90 minutes, implying a 64.5% probability. The draw is available at 3/1, implying 25.0%, while Ghana are 7/1, implying 12.5%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 5/4, implying 44.4%, while both teams to score is available at 7/5, implying 41.7%.
Head to head: First meeting
This will be the first competitive meeting between Colombia and Ghana at senior international level.
Player to Watch: Daniel Munoz leading the xG numbers for Colombia
Daniel Munoz has quietly become one of Colombia's biggest attacking threats. The right-back leads the squad with 0.37 xG per 90 and 0.98 goals per 90, outperforming even Luis Diaz in both categories. His two tournament goals have come from chances worth only 0.7 xG, highlighting both his timing of runs into the box and the quality of his finishing.
Munoz's efficiency stands out. He has converted 66.7% of his shots compared with 9.1% for Diaz. While Diaz attempts more than twice as many efforts, Munoz has consistently arrived in dangerous positions from deep, giving Colombia an additional attacking outlet beyond their front three.
His influence is not limited to the final third. Munoz ranks second among Colombia's outfield players for defensive contributions per 90, underlining his importance at both ends of the pitch. Against a Ghana side expected to defend deep, his overlapping runs could prove decisive.
Predicted line-ups
Colombia 4-3-3: Vargas; Mojica, Sanchez, Lucumi, Munoz; Puerta, Lerma, Arias; Diaz, Rodriguez, Suarez.
Ghana 4-1-4-1: Asare; Mensah, Adjetey, Luckassen, Senaya; Partey; Semenyo, Sibo, Owusu, Sulemana; Ayew.
Anything else catch the eye?
Colombia double chance and under 2.5 goals at 17/20 is the standout bet.
Four of the five matches these sides avoided defeat in during the group stage produced two goals or fewer. Colombia's win over DR Congo and draw with Portugal both stayed under the line, while Ghana's victory over Panama and draw with England followed the same pattern. Only Colombia's opening win against Uzbekistan produced more than two goals.
The underlying numbers support another low-scoring contest. Colombia have conceded only one goal in three matches and allowed just 2.46 xGA across the group stage. Ghana have been similarly disciplined, conceding only twice despite facing England and Croatia, while offering little attacking threat themselves. Their return of two goals from 19 shots illustrates the difficulty they have had creating clear chances.
Colombia should dominate possession and territory, but Ghana's defensive structure is capable of keeping the scoreline close. Covering the draw alongside a Colombia victory provides useful protection, while the under 2.5 goals leg fits the defensive profile both sides have shown throughout the tournament.
GambleAware