I was surprised to see Indian Run drift in the manner that he did, but it didn't change the outcome.
I tipped him up at 11/4, and he went to an SP of 9/2. There were four joint favourites in the race, but our runner was the one who came out on top.
The other runner of the day, Yes Day, was an even bigger drifter. Tipped up at 7/2, he went off more than double that price and didn't have the speed to go with those who finished ahead of him.
Alaskan Bear 15/8 (1.5pt) – Newbury 7.25
I think it's easy to get drawn into backing juvenile horses when it appears they have a strong piece of form, but I think there could be serious value in the 15/8 on offer for Alaskan Bear.
He was third in a Group 3 behind a subsequent Royal Ascot winner (Great Barrier Reef). He wasn't battered out of sight that day, and you've got to believe a repeat performance should be good enough against a much weaker bunch.
To believe you can get 15/8 on him seems a bit ridiculous, and makes me think I've got this wrong. If this were an Aidan O'Brien horse coming over for a Class 4 with Group 3 form, he'd be an odds-on shot, but because it's Jack Davison, we can actually get a good price.
Le Samourai 2/1 (1pt) – Kempton 5.33
I'm taking a chance on Le Samouria by backing him at 2/1, but based on his pedigree and the fact that Wathnan own him, I expect a lot more from him this time around.
He is a half-brother to the prolific Hong Kong winner, Romantic Warrior. He won't be anywhere near as good as his sibling, but he was backed into 5/2F on debut, so he must have been showing something at home. Ralph Beckett's yard isn't really a gambling one, so when the money is down, they know that they have a good one.
Le Samourai flopped on his debut, but you've got to give him another chance. That race was on soft ground, and if you look into the pedigree, all of his siblings run their best on fast ground and normally avoid everything that's worse than good.
This doesn't appear to be a strong race, despite there being some big trainers and big owners lining up, which made me think the 2/1 wasn't a bad price all things considered.
Ceinture d'Orion 9/4 (1pt) – Nottingham 3.30
I find it difficult to catch O'Meara and Danny Tudhope on a good day; they win when I'm against them, and their horse runs like muck when I back them. Either way, on handicap debut, Ceinture d'Orion has a nice opportunity to get her head in front.
This doesn't look like the strongest of races, and with a good pedigree on my selection, she should be better than what we've seen from her in her qualifying runs.
GambleAware