Chelsea and Fulham meet in the Premier League at Stamford Bridge on Saturday lunchtime in what already feels like a telling game for both clubs. Enzo Maresca’s side arrive unbeaten from their first three fixtures, while Marco Silva’s men are searching for their first win after consecutive draws.
Chelsea’s start has been strong, not just in terms of results but also underlying numbers. They have taken seven points from three games, scoring 10 goals and conceding only two. Their xPTS tally of 4.79 is the highest in the division, ahead of Manchester City (4.13) and Arsenal (4.05), underlining how well they have controlled matches. With an xG ratio above 72 percent, they are creating far more than their opponents, and their ability to share goals is notable. Even with Cole Palmer side lined by a groin issue, five different players scored in the 5-1 win at West Ham, with Joao Pedro, Pedro Neto, Enzo Fernandez and Moises Caicedo all finding the net. Depth has been added with Estevao impressing on his first start, while further reinforcements could still arrive before the deadline.
For Fulham, the picture is different. They have drawn both games so far, 1-1 at Brighton and 1-1 against Manchester United, and their xPTS total of 2.70 places them mid-table, behind the likes of Leeds (2.83) and Sunderland (2.93). Their attacking numbers remain modest, with only three big chances created across two fixtures and an xG ratio of just above 50 percent. They are yet to keep a clean sheet, although Bernd Leno has been a steady presence in goal. Off the pitch, Silva is still waiting to see if key men will be sold, with Rodrigo Muniz attracting bids and Andreas Pereira omitted against United. He is also pushing for at least three new signings before the window shuts.
All of this sets up a derby between a Chelsea side that looks balanced and dangerous, and a Fulham team trying to stabilise during a period of uncertainty.
How the bookies view it: Hosts clear favourites
Chelsea are priced at 54/100 favourites for this London derby, which implies a 64.9% chance of victory, with the draw at 18/5 (21.7%) and Fulham outsiders at 11/2 (15.4%).
The goals markets also point towards action, with over 2.5 goals at 7/10 (58.8%) and both teams to score at 5/6 (54.5%).
Head to Head: Chelsea strong at the Bridge despite last season loss
In the last 19 competitive meetings between Chelsea and Fulham, Chelsea hold a strong upper hand with 11 wins, 6 draws and only 2 defeats. Across those games they’ve scored 25 goals and conceded nine, averaging 1.79 goals for and 0.47 against per match.
The most recent clash came in April 2025 when Chelsea won 2-1 at Craven Cottage thanks to goals from Tyrique George and Pedro Neto. Earlier that season, Fulham had pulled off a rare upset, winning 2-1 at Stamford Bridge on Boxing Day which was just their second win in this entire 19-match run. Chelsea also won both meetings in 2023/24, 2-0 away and 1-0 at home, while Fulham’s other success in this period came in January 2023 at Craven Cottage.
The trend shows Chelsea usually keeping things tight defensively. They have conceded just nine goals in those 19 meetings, with 11 clean sheets. For Fulham, breaking down Chelsea has consistently been the problem, even when they have managed to stay competitive in scorelines.
At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea’s dominance has been even more pronounced: Fulham’s 2-1 victory last December was their first away league win over Chelsea since 1979.
Players to watch: Chelsea look set for fouls and shots at the Bridge.
A strong player props angle for this derby is Marc Cucurella 1+ shot and Moises Caicedo 1+ foul.
Cucurella has developed into a consistent shooting outlet at Stamford Bridge. Last season he failed to register a shot in his first six home appearances but then attempted at least one in 10 of his final 12. Including this campaign, he has now recorded a shot in 11 of his last 13 home games, with the only blanks in that stretch coming against Tottenham and Liverpool. His advanced positioning in Maresca’s system makes him a regular contributor in the final third, and the numbers show he is reliable for at least one effort against mid-table sides.
Caicedo, meanwhile, is almost automatic for fouls. He committed at least one foul in 33 of 38 Premier League matches last season (87%), including 17 of 19 at Stamford Bridge. He ended the campaign with 70 fouls and 11 bookings, reflecting the volume of defensive interventions he makes. The Fulham matchup is especially favourable: last season he committed four fouls in the 2-1 home defeat and three in the away win at Craven Cottage, for a total of seven across the two derbies.
With Cucurella’s consistent shooting trend at home and Caicedo’s near-certainty to foul, the joint bet of Cucurella 1+ shot and Caicedo 1+ foul looks a smart way to combine attacking and defensive profiles into one price.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Sanchez, Gusto, Chalobah, Adarabioyo, Cucurella, Caicedo, Fernandez, Estevao, Pedro, Neto, Delap
Fulham (4-2-3-1): Leno, Tete, Andersen, Bassey, Robinson, Berge, Lukic, Sessegnon, Iwobi, King, Muniz
Anything else catch the eye?
The best value in this derby looks to come from a three-part selection: Chelsea over 1.5 goals, Chelsea double chance, and both teams to collect a card each.
Chelsea’s attacking output makes them highly likely to score at least twice. In their three league games, they have already scored 10 goals and posted an expected goals tally of 6.09, averaging more than 2.0 per match. They have also created nine big chances and averaged 14 shots per game, with nearly half of those efforts hitting the target. Joao Pedro has four goals in his first five appearances and is supported by midfielders Enzo Fernandez and Moises Caicedo, who have both found the net this season. Even without Cole Palmer, Chelsea’s depth means they are consistently threatening.
Backing Chelsea on the double chance is strengthened by their underlying process. Their expected points total of 4.79 is the highest in the league after three matches, showing they have controlled games more effectively than Manchester City, Arsenal or Liverpool. By contrast, Fulham’s total of 2.70 places them closer to the bottom half, with Leeds and newly promoted Sunderland ahead of them. Chelsea’s defence has allowed just one big chance across their three matches, making it difficult to see them losing outright.
The card element is strongly supported by the trends. Each of the last ten head-to-head meetings between Chelsea and Fulham has seen both sides booked, with an average of 4.8 cards per game. At Stamford Bridge, the last five league derbies have seen each side average two cards. Chelsea themselves averaged 2.58 home cards last season and have already collected two in their only home game this term. Fulham’s opponents, meanwhile, have picked up at least one card in 17 of their last 20 away league games.
Combined, these numbers make this three-part selection a strong betting angle.
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