Chelsea have one foot in the Europa Conference League final after a commanding 4-1 win in Stockholm. Nicolas Jackson bagged a brace, with Noni Madueke and Jadon Sancho also on target.
The Blues have racked up 37 goals and conceded just nine in the competition, although they have only kept three clean sheets in 11 outings. Over 2.5 goals has landed in nine of those matches, while both teams have scored in seven. Their underlying stats back that up – averaging 2.75 xG and conceding only 0.99 xG per game.
Djurgarden have made history by reaching the semi-finals – their deepest-ever European run. While clear underdogs, the Swedes have scored 19 and conceded 14 across the group and knockout stages. Nine of their 11 matches have seen both times finding the net, and eight have featured over 2.5 goals. Their xG metrics – 1.4 for and 1.18 against — show they are more than capable of creating chances.
Chelsea have rotated heavily in this competition and are expected to do so again, with a huge Premier League clash at Newcastle looming.Notably, Chelsea were beaten 2-1 at home by Legia Warsaw in the second leg of their quarter-final, despite winning the first leg 3-0 – a reminder that lapses in focus can be punished. Djurgarden responded to last week’s heavy defeat with a 1-1 draw against rivals AIK and have lost just once in their last seven European away games. They also turned around a first-leg loss to beat Rapid Vienna 4-1 after extra time in the quarters — a sign they will not go quietly.
How the bookies view it: Chelsea to stroll to the final
Chelsea are strong favourites for this clash, priced as low as 2/9 to win. The visitors are big outsiders at 18/1, with a draw available at 8.8. A Chelsea win by two or more goals (-2 Asian handicap) is just 8/11, reflecting expectations of a dominant performance. Both teams to score is an interesting 5/4, while over 2.5 goals sits at 4/11. Chelsea win to nil is priced at 10/11, despite only four clean sheets in the Conference League.
Head to head:
Last week’s first-leg clash marked the first-ever meeting between Chelsea and Djurgarden in any competition. The match saw a total of three yellow cards, two for Chelsea and one for Djurgarden. The Swedes registered three corners, with seven corners in total during the game.
Players to watch: Nguen to cause Chelsea concern
With the odds heavily stacked in Chelsea’s favour, there is little value in backing the match result or basic goal markets. Instead, the best angle lies in player shots — particularly Djurgarden’s Tokmac Nguen. Despite a 4-1 loss in the first leg, Djurgarden managed 16 shots, five on target, and generated 1.39 xG. Nguen was involved throughout and has been a consistent threat in the Europa Conference League, registering 36 shots across the campaign – an average of 3.2 shots per game, with at least two in every appearance.
In domestic action, he has taken 18 shots in just four starts (399 minutes), showing clear intent in the final third. With Djurgarden needing to attack again at Stamford Bridge, backing Tokmac Nguen over 1.5 shots at 5/6 represents strong value.
Predicted line-ups
Nicolas Jackson, Marc Cucurella, and Cole Palmer are likely to be rested. Moises Caicedo, and Enzo Fernandez are all set to be held back for the trip to Newcastle. Marc Guiu, Wesley Fofana, and Christopher Nkunku remain sidelined through injury. Djurgarden have no new suspensions for their trip to London, but injuries remain a major concern. The Swedish side will be forced to rotate and rely on depth for this clash.
Chelsea: Jorgensen; Acheampong, Badiashile, Tosin, Gusto; James, Dewsbury-Hall; Sancho, Mheuka, Walsh, George.
Djurgarden: Rinne; Stahl, Une Larsson, Danielsson, Kosugi; Finndell, Stensson; Haarala, Gulliksen, Priske Flyger; Nguen
Anything else catch the eye?
Chelsea have conceded in eight of their 11 Europa Conference League matches but have scored in all 11, highlighting their attacking consistency and defensive vulnerability. Djurgarden, meanwhile, have seen both teams score in nine of their 11 games, underlining their tendency to be involved in open, end-to-end encounters.
With Chelsea likely to rotate ahead of a key Premier League clash against Newcastle, they may not be at full intensity here. That opens the door slightly for Djurgarden. Across the group and knockout stages, only three teams in the competition have averaged more shots on target than Djurgarden. Including qualifiers, the Swedes have played 17 Conference League matches this season and found the net in 14 of them — a strong record for a side often priced as heavy underdogs.
Domestically, Chelsea have kept five home clean sheets, but three came against teams currently sitting in the Premier League’s bottom six — suggesting their defence is far from impenetrable when tested by stronger opposition.
This UEFA Europa League Conference match between Chelsea and Djurgarden will be played on and kick off at 20:00. Check below for our tipsters best Chelsea vs Djurgarden prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
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