The Premier League returns to Stamford Bridge on Sunday as Chelsea host Crystal Palace in a London derby that promises both quality and intensity. Chelsea come into the new season on the back of a trophy-laden 2024/25 campaign, winning the Conference League and Club World Cup while securing a fourth-place finish. Enzo Maresca’s side ended last season in strong form, winning five of their final six league matches, and their underlying data backed up their results.
At home, they posted the third-best record in the league (W12-D5-L2), averaging 1.65 xG per game with a +0.39 xG differential, and failing to score just once. The summer has brought further attacking options, with Joao Pedro, Jamie Gittens and Liam Delap joining Cole Palmer, Enzo Fernandez and Moises Caicedo in a deep and balanced squad.
Crystal Palace arrive as FA Cup holders after a memorable run last season, which also saw them finish ninth. Oliver Glasner’s men were among the league’s most efficient travellers, ranking fourth for away xPTS (30.36) and keeping clean sheets in 37% of away matches. However, their record away to top-half opposition was modest (W1-D5-L4). Palace lost Michael Olise to Bayern Munich last summer and have since relied heavily on Eberechi Eze and Jean-Philippe Mateta for creativity and goals. Borna Sosa and Walter Benitez have strengthened them defensively, but there is a question over their ability to consistently create and convert chances in these fixtures.
The head-to-head record in recent years favours Chelsea, and their home dominance against bottom-half and mid-table sides last season suggests they will have the initiative. Palace’s disciplined shape and counter threat could keep them competitive, but Chelsea’s control of possession and ability to create high-quality opportunities in the box makes them the favourites to start their league campaign with three points.
How the bookies view it: Chelsea to win with goals
Chelsea are priced at 8/13 to win, implying a probability of around 61.9%, with the draw at 7/2 (22.2%) and Crystal Palace at 9/2 (18.2%). In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is 4/6 (60.0%) and both teams to score is 7/10 (58.8%).
The odds suggest Chelsea are strong favourites, with the market leaning slightly towards a match featuring at least three goals and both sides finding the net.
Head to Head: Blues strong at the Bridge
Over the last 20 meetings between Chelsea and Crystal Palace, Chelsea have been dominant, winning 16, drawing 2, and losing just 2, with a 41-14 aggregate scoreline, averaging 2.05 goals per game and conceding only 0.70.
Chelsea are unbeaten in the last 16 encounters (W14-D2), with Crystal Palace’s last victory coming back in April 2017. The most recent two meetings, both in the 2024/25 Premier League season, ended 1-1 home and away, but before that Chelsea had won 14 straight in all competitions.
At Stamford Bridge, the record is strong: W10-D1-L2, with 25 goals scored and nine conceded. Chelsea have kept clean sheets in five of the last seven home meetings and have scored 2+ goals in seven of the last nine at the Bridge. Palace, on the other hand, have managed more than one goal in this fixture away from home only once in the last decade.
Players to watch: Caicedo to be the enforcer whilst Cucurella attacks
Moises Caicedo to commit 2 or more fouls looks a strong betting angle for Chelsea’s clash with Crystal Palace. Last season, the Ecuadorian midfielder committed at least one foul in 33 of his 38 Premier League appearances, hitting the 2+ mark in 23 of them. His record against Palace was perfect for this line, with three fouls in the home game and two away.
Palace’s away style also lends itself to fouls being drawn. On the road in 2024/25, their opponents committed an average of 11.21 fouls per match, with ball carriers like Eberechi Eze and Adam Wharton particularly adept at inviting contact. Jean-Philippe Mateta’s physical presence up front also forces holding midfielders into challenges from behind.
Caicedo’s role as Chelsea’s primary ball-winner means he regularly breaks up counter-attacks and makes recovery tackles when the full-backs push high. This leads to frequent one-on-one situations in transition a prime condition for fouls. With his consistency, past record in this fixture, and Palace’s tendency to draw contact, backing Caicedo for 2+ fouls offers strong value.
Marc Cucurella looks a strong candidate for 1+ shot when Chelsea face Crystal Palace at Stamford Bridge. His 2024/25 Premier League campaign can be split into two clear phases. In his first 13 games, he registered just one shot in total, playing a more conservative role and rarely getting into advanced positions. However, his attacking involvement increased sharply in the remaining 23 league matches, where he produced 23 shots, averaging one per game and found the net five times.
That shift has been even more evident at Stamford Bridge. In his last 12 Premier League home games, Cucurella recorded 16 shots, hitting at least one in 10 of them. The only blanks came against Liverpool and Tottenham, two sides who limit full-back freedom. Against mid-table or lower-ranked teams, he has consistently advanced into crossing and shooting positions, often joining attacks late or taking efforts from recycled set pieces.
With Chelsea expected to dominate territory against Palace, Cucurella should again have licence to push high on the left. His form in the latter part of last season makes 1+ shot a high-probability selection here. The best price is with Betway at 10/11.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Sanchez, James, Chalobah, Tosin, Cucurella, Caicedo, Fernandez, Neto, Palmer, Gittens, Joao Pedro
Crystal Palace (3-4-3): Henderson, Munoz, Mitchell, Lacroix, Guehi, Kamada, Wharton, Richards, Sarr, Eze, Mateta,
Anything else catch the eye?
Chelsea double chance, Chelsea over 1.5 goals, and Chelsea over 0 cards at 4/5 with Bet365 combines three angles that are strongly supported by last season’s data.
Chelsea’s scoring consistency at Stamford Bridge was exceptional in 2024/25. They netted at least twice in 8 of their last 9 home games against non-top-four opposition and averaged 10.05 shots in the box per home game, the third-highest in the league. Palace, meanwhile, conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their 4 away defeats to top-half sides, with an away xGA of 1.21 per game. Chelsea’s attacking upgrades this summer, including Joao Pedro and Jamie Gittens, further boost their chances of hitting two or more goals.
The double chance element is supported by Chelsea’s record at home to bottom-half and mid-table teams, where they went W7-D2-L1 last season. Palace managed just one win in 10 away games against top-half opposition, underlining the difficulty they’ve had converting these fixtures into victories. Oliver Glasner's side have tended to rely on a more compact, counter-attacking style in these bigger fixtures with Eze and Sarr breaking with pace.
The card angle is equally strong. Chelsea collected at least one card in 18 of their 19 home league matches last season, averaging 2.58 cards per game at Stamford Bridge. Crystal Palace’s opponents picked up a card in 18 of 19 away matches, averaging 2.0 per game, meaning the likelihood of Chelsea receiving at least one booking is high.
This bet covers Chelsea to avoid defeat, score twice, and pick up a booking — three outcomes that have been consistent trends for both teams. At 4/5, it offers strong value.
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