Charlton Athletic return to the Championship on Saturday with a home clash against Watford at The Valley, marking the start of the 2025/26 season. The Addicks earned promotion via the League One play-offs after finishing fourth with 85 points. It was a well-rounded campaign, built on a settled side, strong home form and one of the league’s best defensive records.
Nathan Jones has brought stability and intensity, and the group that got them up remains largely intact. Key players like Kayne Ramsay, Lloyd Jones, Louie Berry and Tyreece Campbell formed strong units across the pitch, while striker Matty Godden led the line with energy. Charlton have also added proven experience and depth with goalkeeper Thomas Kaminski, defenders Reece Burke and Amari’i Bell, plus versatile options like Joe Rankin-Costello and creator Sonny Carey.
Watford, by contrast, start the season with uncertainty. They finished 14th last year, and while their xPTS tally (56.61) matched their return, it masked serious issues on the road. New manager Paulo Pezzolano replaces Tom Cleverley, whose sacking caused friction with supporters. Still, the club has recruited well. Vivaldo Semedo, Luca Kjerrumgaard and Nestory Irankunda add raw attacking talent, while James Abankwah, Nathan Baxter and Hector Kyprianou strengthen the spine.
Despite the squad improvements, Watford’s away record last season was poor: just four wins from 23, with worrying defensive metrics. They will need to show more resilience this time around.
Charlton look settled and unified, while Watford are banking on youth and potential under a new head coach. It sets up an intriguing contrast in styles and structure in South London with one club finding its feet in the second tier again, the other still trying to convince its own fans that it has a clear plan.
How the bookies view it: Close low scoring game
Charlton are priced at 152/100 to win, implying a 39.7% chance, with Watford at 2/1 (33.3%) and the draw at 23/10 (30.3%). The market sees Charlton as slight favourites, which reflects their strong home form last season and Watford’s poor away record. In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is 6/5 (45.5% implied), while both teams to score is 17/20 (54.1%), suggesting a slight lean towards goals without full conviction.
Head to Head: No meeting for 10 years
The sides last met in the 2014/15 Championship season. Charlton won the first meeting 1-0 at The Valley in September 2014, before Watford responded with a dominant 5-0 win at Vicarage Road in January 2015. That was the last competitive clash between the two clubs, meaning this weekend’s game ends a gap of over ten years in head-to-head meetings.
Players to watch: Louza to register a shot
Imran Louza looks a strong candidate to register at least one shot against Charlton. He had a shot in 20 of his 30 Championship starts last season and was even more consistent away from home, hitting at least one in nine of his 13 away starts. That’s a 69% hit rate on the road, and his role in midfield sees him regularly attempt efforts from distance, especially when space in and around the box is limited.
With Charlton likely to sit in a compact shape, breaking through centrally could prove difficult, encouraging long-range efforts which is something that suits Louza’s game. He is technically sound, capable of striking from range, and has shown the confidence to shoot under pressure. In a match that may lack open-play fluidity, Louza’s ability to find pockets and take on low-percentage efforts from outside the area adds real value to this angle.
Predicted line-ups
Charlton (3-5-2): Kaminski, Ramsay, Jones, Bell, Apter, Coventry, Carey, Docherty, Edwards, Kelman, Campbell
Watford (4-2-3-1): Selvik, Ngakia, Pollock, Abankwah, Bola, Kyprianou, Louza, Vata, Grieves, Baah, Kjerrumgaard
Anything else catch the eye?
Charlton to avoid defeat and the match to stay under four goals looks a smart bet, combining two outcomes with solid statistical backing.
Across last season’s League One campaign, Charlton showed clear control in key defensive areas. They allowed just 4.88 shots in the box per home game and averaged only 1.55 shots on target conceded. Even against strong sides, Nathan Jones’ team rarely allowed big chances, especially at The Valley.
Watford’s attacking numbers away from home last season were some of the weakest in the Championship. They managed just 8.04 total shots per away match and ranked 22nd for shots on target (2.70). Their big chance creation away was also low as it sat at under 1.00 per game whilst they failed to score in ten of their 23 road fixtures. With a mostly unproven forward line, it may take time for things to click under Pezzolano.
On the other side of the ball, Charlton are not overly expansive either. In only three of their last 20 home league matches did they concede multiple goals. They are solid, but not always high scoring.
While Watford come in with eye-catching signings, they are a young group that may take time to adapt. Early-season cohesion often favours the more settled side and Charlton, with their consistency in selection and structure, fit that profile.
Double chance gives us both the home win and draw on side. Pairing it with under four goals covers a likely low-to-mid tempo game, where quality defending and limited attacking rhythm could keep things tight.
GambleAware