Canada v Morocco
Canada

Canada vs Morocco

, KO: 18:00 , NRG Stadium
Morocco

Canada have already made history by progressing from the group stage for the first time, but now face 2022 World Cup semi-finalists Morocco, who took out the Netherlands on their way into this round. 

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Whether it was because it was their first match away from home in this World Cup, or because South Africa were playing for a 0-0, Canada weren't at their best in the previous round. 

True, they didn't leave their opponents any chances to score, but the Reds had to wait until the 92nd minute for the winning goal, scored by Stephen Eustaquio after the ball landed at his feet after a bad clearance. 

Canada lost their only World Cup match against a higher-ranked national team when they met Switzerland (19th) in matchday 2. Morocco are currently ranked 7th in the FIFA World Rankings and looking like they may even be better than four years ago. 

The Atlas Lions remain undefeated in this edition even after facing Brazil and the Netherlands. Sure, they almost got eliminated and also needed a stoppage-time goal to go level with the Dutch, but the truth is they dominated that match from start to finish.

How the bookies view it: Morocco’s experience will be key

Bookmakers expect Canada to be the first of the three co-hosts to get eliminated, as they give Morocco a massive advantage in the odds. 

You can currently back Canada at 4/1, a draw at 5/2, or Morocco at 3/4. This is a significant gap, and the trend shows that people are betting heavily on the Africans, as their odds were originally around 19/20. You can find the best current options using our best mobile apps for world cup betting

Recent head-to-head: Morocco crushed their dreams four years ago

Canada and Morocco share some history, and the Atlas Lions remain undefeated after four meetings (W3, D1). 

More importantly, the teams also met in the 2022 World Cup, when they were placed in the same group. There is a massive difference between that Canadian team and the one we are seeing today, but Morocco won 2-1 four years ago. 

Players to watch: Bayern Munich’s new gem, Saibari 

This is a difficult match to predict, given that we expect Morocco to have the control, and they don't exactly have a go-to goalscorer we can trust with confidence. 

However, Ismael Saibari has scored in three of Morocco's four World Cup matches so far, and he is in top form overall. After a sensational season at PSV Eindhoven, his transfer to Bayern Munich was just announced earlier today. 

He was a little quiet against the Netherlands, but we expect him to be the main threat for Crepeau's goal.

Probable line-ups 

Canada: Crepeau, Laryea, Cornelius, Bombito, Johnston, Sheffelburg, Eustaquio, Saliba, Buchanan, David, Oluwaseyi

Morocco: Bono, Mazraoui, Riad, Dio, Hakimi, Bouaddi, El Aynaoui, Diaz, Ounahi, El Khannouss, Saibari

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Both teams to score

Morocco's Round of 32 performance completely changed the outlook for this tie. They generated 1.40 xG and created five big chances against the Netherlands, dominating one of the tournament favourites before progressing on penalties.

Walid Regragui's side combined disciplined defending with devastating counter-attacks, while Achraf Hakimi and Noussair Mazraoui consistently exposed the Dutch in transition. Their defensive record has been equally impressive, conceding just 0.29 xGA from open play per game across the tournament when set pieces are excluded.

Canada arrive with genuine attacking quality of their own. They have averaged 2.22 xGF per game, with Jonathan David and Alphonso Davies providing pace and finishing that Morocco have yet to face together in this competition.

The 122-point Elo gap gives Morocco a 50.3% win probability, making Canada look overpriced at 17/4 compared with their Elo expectation of 24.9%. My model's strongest angle comes in the goals market, rating both teams to score at 57.2% against a market expectation of 46.6%.

Anything else catch the eye?

To sum things up, we also believe that Canada's days are numbered, and Morocco will progress forward again. And based on what we've seen so far, we expect them to do it in regulation this time, winning 2-1. Canada should be able to score at least once, as they have the firepower, and they have the motivation as co-hosts of the tournament. 

On a side note, we noticed that Canada's LB Richie Laryea wasn't at his best in the last two matches, and he committed four fouls against South Africa and two against Switzerland. 

This time, he will be tasked with stopping Real Madrid's Brahim Diaz, who is much faster and more technical than him. This could lead to some fouls again, and we think that the 1/2 for 2+ fouls is worth a shot.

Canada vs Morocco Betting Tips & Predictions
Morocco to win
3/4
Bet365
Ismael Saibari 1+ shots on target
3/5
Bet365
Richie Laryea 2+ fouls commited
1/2
Bet365
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