I didn't get to watch Bill The Bull race at Sandown, but I have watched the replay back.
It looked like he was severely outclassed, and maybe he's not as good as what I thought he was and what connections thought he could be. Pat Cosgrave looked after him when his chances of winning went, and eased up on him.
Marnier stayed on nicely under Rab Havlin, clearly enjoying the Sandown hill. When he came upsides and didn't push on, I did get flashbacks of Crepe Suzette, who would never go on to win her races. He did eventually go past and fend off the other who were staying on at the finish.
Arc Ole Ole 2/1 (1.5pt) – Newmarket 2.05
It's hard to get too confident in a race this competitive, where a lot of horses arrive in good form with strong runs or wins under their belt. Arc Ole Ole is one of those who doesn't have a win from their last run, but definitely has the strongest form.
I thought he ran a blinder to finish in fifth place at Royal Ascot, and if he had been positioned in a better place, he could have done some serious damage. He was positioned towards the rear, which wasn't the place to be for that race, but ran on strongly to finish a creditable fifth.
That was a Class 2, and it was against many unexposed horses. Today's opposition is tough, but not on the same level as Royal Ascot, so this is a much easier assignment. He has drifted out from his opening odds, which is a bit strange, but 2/1 makes him an attractive bet.
Royal Zabeel 11/2 (1pt) – Newmarket 4.25
Carrying a big weight of 9st 12lbs will make this a tough task for Royal Zabeel, but he is a course and distance winner off a 1lb lower handicap mark, and has been in good form.
You have to ignore his Royal Ascot run. The draw bias that week was a joke, and he was drawn on the wrong side, where no one from that side made any inroads. If you look at his runs before that, he was 5th/28 in the Victoria Cup, and was a good 4th at Musselburgh on soft enough ground.
He is a classy all-weather horse, but can mix it at this level on the turf. I know connections thought he would have run a big race in the Wokingham, but the draw scuppered their chances.
Frantic 15/8 (1pt) – Leicester 4.30
I tipped up Franctic on her penultimate start when Kieran Shoemark gave her one of the worst rides I've seen this year. She has run since, and luckily, I didn't notice that she was running. She broke slowly from the gates last time out, and it appears that she was given another terrible ride, this time by George Downing.
The way she finished off her penultimate race, the step up to seven furlongs could be ideal. She hit the line very hard that day and was a huge eyecatcher given the amount of ground she made up.
I'd love to have more than 1pt on her, but due to them wanting to ride her from the rear, there are too many risks attached. Ashley Lewis is in the saddle, removing an extra 5lbs, so she should be extremely well-handicapped. Hopefully, it all goes to plan.
GambleAware