After Rome was conquered by fellow title contenders and current champions Napoli, Roma set sail to the nearby island of Sardinia to face relegation-threatened Cagliari and reclaim the top of the table.
Cagliari need to rediscover their early season form, when they won three of their first five competitive games. Since that last win in late September, the Islanders are on a run of 10 games without a win, which includes six defeats.
Cagliari are sitting a point above the relegation zone and only the win could save them from falling to the drop zone. The one positive they should build upon is the fact they have been scoring more goals than usual – five in their last three fixtures. As long as their defence improves, the results will come.
As for Roma, the most unexpected title contenders this season, their title charge suffered a major setback after they lost 1-0 to Napoli at home. With this defeat, the Wolves have not lost against all three direct rivals – Inter, Napoli, and AC Milan.
However, this also means that Roma have been almost flawless against teams from the bottom half of the table, only losing to Torino. And the Wolves are the best visitors in the league with five wins in six away games.
How the bookies view it: Significant away advantage
Bookmakers expect a one-sided clash and the visitors to bounce back from the major upset with a confident performance. You can currently back Cagliari at 17/4, the draw at 13/5, and Roma at 7/10.
Recent head-to-head: Five in six for Roma
The last few editions of this clash were all about Roma, as the Wolves won five of the last six meetings. The only exception was the 0-0 draw in the equivalent of this fixture last season.
In fact, Roma have lost only one of their last 10 trips to the Unipol Domus stadium. And we should also mention that Cagliari failed to score in four of the last five H2Hs.
Players to watch: Dybala loves playing Cagliari
Paulo Dybala has not had the best season starts and only has a goal and an assist in nine appearances, but his personal stats against Cagliari are quite impressive. He has met the Islanders 14 times throughout his career and has never lost a game.
More importantly, he has six goals and three assists in his personal H2Hs, so we’d look at him again on Sunday.
Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.
Probable line-ups
Cagliari: Caprile, Zappa, Mina, Luperto, Palestra, Deiola, Prati, Folorunsho, Obert, Borrelli, Esposito
Roma: Svilar, Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso, Celik, Cristante, Kone, Wesley, Soule, Pellegrini, Ferguson
Anything else catch the eye?
While Roma are deep in the title race, they are the lowest-scoring team of the leading group, with just 15 goals in 13 rounds. Obviously, Cagliari are also one of the lowest-scoring sides, as one of the teams that is battling relegation.
At the same time, Roma have the absolute best defence in the league, with just seven goals conceded, and half of them were against teams from the Top 4. We do not see how Cagliari will find their way to the net and the fact they failed in 4/5 recent H2Hs makes us believe even more in a clean sheet bet for Roma.
We anticipate a 1-0 or a 2-0 win for the Wolves, who cannot afford mistakes against teams from the bottom of the table.
GambleAware