Burnley v Bournemouth
Burnley

Burnley vs AFC Bournemouth

, KO: 15:00 , Turf Moor
AFC Bournemouth

Bournemouth will look to continue their push towards European qualification on Saturday as they travel to Turf Moor to take on relegation-threatened Burnley.

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Bournemouth suffered their third consecutive draw in the Premier League last time out, as they were held to a goalless draw at home to fellow high-flyers Brentford.

Nevertheless, Andoni Iraola’s visitors are now unbeaten in each of their previous nine Premier League encounters (W4-D5-L0), leaving the Cherries in ninth position in the table, just four points behind Brentford in seventh.

Burnley, on the other hand, followed up their agonising 3-4 defeat at home to Brentford by losing 2-0 in Merseyside against eighth-placed Everton.

Scott Parker’s men have now won just one of their previous 20 Premier League encounters (W1-D6-L13), leaving them in 19th position, nine points adrift of safety.

How the bookies view it: Bournemouth favourites

Bournemouth come into this clash as favourites to continue their fine run of form, with bet365 pricing an away success at 5/6.

Burnley are 16/5 underdogs to claim just their second win from their last 21 Premier League matches, whilst the draw is 11/4.

Head to head: Three unbeaten for the Cherries

Bournemouth are unbeaten in each of their previous three meetings with Burnley, doing the double over them in the 2023/24 season, but could only draw 1-1 in the reverse fixture at the Vitality this season back in December.

Players to watch: More magic from Marcus?

Marcus Tavernier has had another impressive season for Bournemouth, scoring six goals and providing four assists across his opening 26 appearances for the Cherries this term.

The ex-Middlesbrough attacker has provided a goal contribution in four of his previous six appearances for Bournemouth, and the 7/5 on offer at bet365 for him to Score or Assist appeals to me.

Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.

Predicted line-ups:

Burnley are expected to be missing the injured Axel Tuanzebe, Connor Roberts, Jordan Beyer, Josh Cullen, Armando Broja and Zeki Amdouni, whilst Mike Tresor, Marcus Edwards and Zian Flemming are doubts.

Bournemouth will be missing the injured Julio Soler, Lewis Cook, Justin Kluivert and Ben-Gannon-Doak.

Burnley: Dubravka, Humphreys, Esteve, Worrall, Walker, Ward-Prowse, Ugochukwu, Pires, Hannibal, Anthony, Foster

AFC Bournemouth: Petrovic, Jimenez, Hill, Senesi, Truffert, Scott, Adams, Rayan, Christie, Tavernier, Evanilson

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Bournemouth win

Burnley host Bournemouth on Saturday with the underlying numbers strongly favouring the visitors.

Burnley arrive in poor form with only one win in their last 20 matches, posting a W1-D6-L13 record. Their underlying home numbers are equally concerning. Burnley generate only 0.77 NPxG at Turf Moor while conceding 1.99. They rank bottom in the league for xG ratio, shots inside the box ratio and shots on target ratio.

Burnley also allow 5.57 shots on target per home match and concede close to 14 shots per game. Bournemouth arrive with the stronger attacking output. They generate 1.50 NPxG away and average more than 12 shots per match. Their away games also produce goals regularly with 71% landing over 2.5 and 71% seeing both teams score.

Recent data reinforces the gap. Across the last eight matches Bournemouth produce 1.82 xG per game and have created 12 big chances while conceding seven. Burnley generate only 0.71 xG and have produced just two big chances across the same period.

Anything else catch the eye?

Bournemouth are amongst the highest away-scorers in the Premier League this season, firing in 23 goals across their opening 14 road trips.

The Cherries have scored 2+ goals in eight (57%) of those away matches – including in five of their last eight – and should possess too much firepower for their struggling hosts.

Scott Parker’s hosts are winless in each of their past 10 Premier League matches on home soil (W0-D3-L7), shipping multiple goals in eight (80%) of them, including in each of their last five.

Burnley vs AFC Bournemouth Betting Tips & Predictions
AFC Bournemouth to Win
5/6
Bet365
AFC Bournemouth to Score Over 1.5 Goals
8/11
Bet365
Marcus Tavernier to Score or Assist
7/5
Bet365
Further Reading
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