Botswana and DR Congo face off at Al Barid Stadium on Tuesday night, with the Leopards looking to seal a place in the knockout phase of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, while Zebras play for nothing but pride.
Botswana are out of the 2025 AFCON after suffering a 3-0 loss to Senegal before getting edged 1-0 by Benin.
Not only has the Zebras failed to score in those games, but they have disappointingly managed just one shot on target across both matches, pointing to their lack of attacking impetus.
The Southern African side came into just their second AFCON tournament without much pedigree and form, and they were unable to turn up even in the heat of the tournament, as they have now lost six of their last seven matches, conceding 14 goals across those games.
However, the Zebras can achieve something here by recording their first set of points at the continental showpiece, having lost all five matches they have played in AFCON, three of which came in 2012.
Meanwhile, DR Congo will hope to assert their superiority, with the Leopards currently second in the group only due to an inferior goal difference compared to group leaders Senegal.
Sebastien Desabre’s men played a 1-1 draw on Saturday against Senegal after their 1-0 victory over Benin in their opening game.
DR Congo head into this game with five wins from their last six competitive outings, keeping four clean sheets in that period, while they also reached the semi-finals in the last AFCON edition, achievements they are trying to better this year.
A draw should be enough to guarantee a knockout spot for the Leopards, but they could still make it through even if they lose so far Senegal avoid a loss against Benin.
How the bookies view it: DR Congo are clear favourites to claim victory
DR Congo arrive in stronger form and have the better team, which reflects in the odds from the bookies.
The Leopards are priced as overwhelming favourites with odds of 1/4 on Betano, while the draw is priced at 23/5, and Botswana are a long-shot at 27/2.
Recent head-to-head: Evenly balanced historically
These teams have only met twice in the past, with one win for each of them in these games.
Their last meeting was in 2017, where the Leopards secured a 2-0 victory, while the first encounter ended in a goalless draw in 2016, before Botswana went on to win on penalties in the COSAFA Cup.
Players to watch: Cedric Bakambu to wreck havoc on the Zebras
Bakambu netted the opening goal in the draw with Senegal, putting him within two goals of DR Congo’s record scorer Dieumerci Mbokani.
The Real Betis forward will get enough chances to put Botswana to the sword and we expect him to take them.
Probable line-ups
Botswana have no injury or suspension concerns ahead of this fixture, while DR Congo will be without Mario Stroeykens, who remains sidelined through injury.
Botswana: Phoko; Velaphi, Gaolaolwe, Ditlhokwe, Johnson; Ditsele, Mohutsiw; Ratshukudu, Orebonye, Seakanyeng; Kebatho
DR Congo: Mpasi-Nzau; Wan-Bissaka, Mbemba, Tuanzebe, Kayembe; Moutoussamy; Bongonda, Mukau, Sadiki, Elia; Bakambuu
Anything else that catches the eye?
Botswana have failed to score in four of their last five competitive matches, making an under 0.5 goals for the Zebras an enticing option.
Botswana faced 21 shots on target in their opening two AFCON matches, and we expect Bakambu to get more than two shots on target in this game.
DR Congo have opened the scoring in eight of their last nine games, so backing to hit the net first here is a solid option.
GambleAware