Midweek’s Champions League action gave Bayern Munich a harsh reality check and the Bavarians will aim to bounce back from the rare defeat when they host relegation-threatened St Pauli.
All streaks are destined to end someday and Arsenal brought Bayern’s 25-match unbeaten run to a swift end at the Emirates on Wednesday. While it was expected to happen sooner or later, this clash was never even close. Arsenal won 3-1 and Bayern ended the match with just 0.65 xG.
It remains to be seen how Vincent Kompany’s team responds to the defeat, as it was their first one this season overall, but playing St Pauli at home should be a far easier task. The Bavarians are six points clear at the top of the Bundesliga table with 10 wins and a draw, as well as a 41:8 goal difference.
On the other end, St Pauli’s dreams have lately turned into nightmares, as the team has spent the last month in the drop zone. The Neighbourhood Kickers kicked off the season in style but are currently on an eight-match losing streak in the top flight, which is also a negative club record.
On top of that, St Pauli have the second weakest attack in the league with nine goals and have conceded the 4th most (21).
How the bookies view it: Only one possible outcome
As predicted, bookmakers share an unanimous agreement that St Pauli’s chances are almost non-existent in this fixture. Bayern Munich return to their usual position as undeniable favourites and are available at just 1/10.
On the other end, you can back St Pauli at 22/1, while the draw is available at 9/1.
Recent head-to-head: All about Bayern Munich since 2002
St Pauli survived their first season in the elite since 2010/11 and actually put up a good fight in both clashes against Bayern Munich last season, although the Bavarians won both times (3:2, 1-0).
Overall, Bayern won nine of the last 10 H2Hs, including the last six in a row. St Pauli’s last triumph over the Bavarians goes back to 2002.
Players to watch: Karl has the brightest of futures
Bayern Munich’s new gem, Lennart Karl, continues to impress whenever he is on the pitch and is likely to make the starting line-up again on Saturday. The 17-year-old scored five goals across his last four appearances for club and country, including Bayern’s only goal against Arsenal.
Among the other valuable picks, we can highlight Michael Olise, who continues to dominate the midfield against most opponents, and has 17 goal contributions across his 18 appearances this season.
Probable line-ups
Bayern Munich: Neuer, Stanisic, Upamecano, Tah, Bischof, Pavlovic, Kimmich, Olise, Kane, Karl, Jackson
St Pauli: Vasilj, Wahl, Smith, Mets, Metcalfe, Fujita, Sands, Irvine, Oppie, Hountondji, Lage
Anything else catch the eye?
While Bayern’s defence has been making excessive numbers of mistakes lately, you can’t compare St Pauli with PSG, Arsenal, and local teams like Freiburg. In this case, we expect the Bavarians to cruise to victory and keep a clean sheet in the process.
Among other options, we like the market for Bayern to win both halves, as well as to score in both halves. It is a bit harder to find good value when the gap in class is this huge and the odds reflect it, but there are still good markets available.
When a price looks too good to ignore, that’s value. Learn how to identify it with our Value Betting guide.
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