Last-placed Azerbaijan host two-time World Champions France in a final fixture without any purpose other than to save some of their pride.
Azerbaijan will have to wait at least four more years to make their debut at a major tournament, as they remain winless after five rounds in this cycle. The National accumulated a single point across these games after a 1-1 stalemate against Ukraine, while losing the remaining four matches. This disappointing WCQ is part of a longer streak without a win, spanning 15 fixtures.
Didier Deschamps’ France is en route to another qualification cycle without tasting defeat after winning four out of five games to date (D1). Les Bleus have secured their place in the World Cup proper and could come out with an experimental squad, but even their reserves should be able to handle a team of Azerbaijan’s level without breaking a sweat.
How the bookies view it: Another winless WCQ cycle for Azerbaijan
There are probably not many people who expect anything other than a routine victory for France, and bookmakers reflect these expectations in their odds. At the moment, you can back France for a minimum profit of 1/10, while the hosts Azerbaijan are available at 22/1. If you believe there is a chance of a draw, you can back it at 8/1.
Recent head-to-head: France – 15; Azerbaijan – 0 goals
Last month’s clash in Paris marked the first meeting between the two nations since 1995, and Les Bleus won 3-0. If we travel 30 years back to the qualifications for Euro 1996, France won both legs with 12:0 on aggregate. Overall, Azerbaijan have never scored against France and chances are this will not change on Sunday.
Players to watch: Olise can do it all
While France do not necessarily need that win, we know that Deschamps is not an experimentalist and is more likely to play his best squad for the first 50-60 minutes. With this said, Kylian Mbappe certainly feels like a priority pick, especially after his performance against Ukraine. The 26-year-old Frenchman scored a brace and provided an additional assist, reaching a significant milestone in his career (400 goals).
But there is always a chance Deschamps could decide to spare him in this pointless clash, so we’d rather back a different option – Michael Olise. Bayern Munich’s new star scored a perfect 10 rating against Ukraine after scoring a goal and dominating the midfield for 89 minutes. Betano have him at 3/5 to score or assist, which feels like a solid option.
Probable line-ups
Azerbaijan: Bayramov, Badaov, Krivotsyuk, Mustafazada, Huseynov, Makhmudov, Khaybulaev, Abbasov, Bayramov, Aliyev, Akhundzade
France: Maignan, Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne, Kone, Kante, Olise, Cherkki, Barcola, Mbappe
Anything else catch the eye?
On a normal day, Azerbaijan should not present any real threats to Maignan. The only way we imagine them scoring on Sunday is if France come out without their stars or lack motivation, which is highly unlikely.
Therefore, we like the 3/5 odds for BTTS-No, although we will not throw huge sums at it due to the nature of this fixture. But France should win it regardless and extend Azerbaijan’s winless streak.
GambleAware