Austria begin their World Cup qualifying campaign on Saturday at home to Romania, who have already played twice in Group H—beating San Marino 5-1 before suffering a narrow 1-0 loss to Bosnia. That defeat was harsh on Romania, who had 15 shots to Bosnia’s five and lost despite the visitors scoring with their only effort on target; Romania also won the xG battle 1.80 to 0.95.
Austria come into this opener with a solid competitive record (W11-D4-L5 in their last 20 games) and average 2.12 goals per game across their last 17 home qualifiers (Nations League, Euro, and World Cup combined). However, their defensive record is patchy, having kept just two clean sheets in their last eight competitive matches—both of those coming against Kazakhstan.
Romania, meanwhile, have been extremely resilient outside major tournaments, posting a record of W10-D5-L1 while conceding just 0.56 goals per game in that stretch. They have also found a clinical edge on the road, scoring 13 goals in their last four away games across World Cup and Nations League qualifiers. Austria’s high-energy, vertical approach under Ralf Rangnick will meet stiff resistance from Mircea Lucescu’s compact and efficient Romanian side, but the visitors’ recent away output and underlying performance data suggest they are well-equipped to compete. While Austria are deserved favourites with home advantage and a fresh squad, Romania should not be underestimated.
How the bookies view it: Home win
Bookmakers strongly favour Austria, pricing them at 1/2 to win, with the draw at 10/3 and Romania considered outsiders at 13/2. Goals are expected to be limited but possible, with over 2.5 goals available at evens (1/1) and both teams to score priced at 17/10. While Austria are justifiably backed by the market due to home advantage and a fresher squad, Romania’s form and defensive solidity suggest they are capable of keeping it competitive.
Head to head: Nothing to split the sides
Austria and Romania have a closely contested head-to-head record. They have faced each other 12 times in official international matches. Austria have won three times, Romania four times, and there have been five draws. Both teams have scored 12 goals in these encounters.
Their most recent meetings were in the 2020–21 UEFA Nations League. Romania won 3–2 away in Klagenfurt, while Austria secured a 1–0 victory in the return match in Ploiești.
In World Cup qualifiers, they met twice during the 2010 campaign. Austria won 2–1 at home and the teams drew 1–1 in Bucharest.
Predicted line-ups
David Alaba remains side lined due to injury, while Gernot Trauner is suspended for this match. Romano Schmid is expected to feature prominently in the attacking midfield role for Austria. On the Romanian side, Radu Dragusin is unavailable due to injury, and Mihai Popescu is expected to be on the bench.
Austria (4-2-3-1): Pentz; Posch, Lienhart, Wober, Ulmer; Grillitsch, Laimer; Sabitzer, Schmid, Baumgartner, Arnautovic
Romania (4-3-3): Moldovan; Ratiu, Rus, Burca, Sorescu; Marin, Stanciu, Hagi; Coman, Birligea, Man
Players to watch: Sabitzer constant threat
Marcel Sabitzer has been a pivotal figure for the Austria national team since making his senior debut in June 2012 at the age of 18. He has earned 84 caps and scored 18 goals for his country. A versatile and influential presence in midfield, Sabitzer remains a key contributor on both sides of the ball.
In the most recent Nations League campaign, he featured in five matches, scoring two goals and providing two assists. He was consistently involved in Austria’s attacking play, registering 19 shots with six on target. Sabitzer recorded four or more shots in four of those five games and had at least one shot on target in four, highlighting his aggressive shooting profile and forward influence. Across his last nine international appearances overall, he has taken 48 shots with 17 on target, underlining his consistent goal threat and attacking intent from midfield.
Anything else catch the eye?
Over 2.5 match goals looks like a strong option here, with both sides showing a clear willingness to attack and the underlying stats to support it. Austria have scored in 18 of their last 20 competitive matches and conceded in 15, with both teams scoring in 13 of those games. Matches involving Austria over that span have averaged 3.0 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 10. At home, over 2.5 goals has hit in 11 of the last 17, with both teams scoring in 13 of those.
Romania are more controlled overall, but the away numbers are much more open. The team has scored in eight of the last 10 away matches, averaging 2.0 goals per game. In three Nations League away fixtures, Romania produced 47 shots, 21 on target, and scored eight goals, generating a combined xG figure of 5.99. With Austria looking to impose their attacking style at home and Romania carrying real threat on the counter, this fixture shapes up well for both teams to score and a strong chance of over 2.5 goals.
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