Atletico Madrid host Barcelona in the fourth of six matchups between the two teams we’ll see this season. That’s right—in just four days, they’ll face off again in the first leg of the Champions League quarterfinals.
After three phenomenal clashes between Atletico and Barcelona so far, we can expect nothing but more action over the next two weeks.
Los Colchoneros lost their last two matches by the same score (3-2), with the most recent defeat coming against city rivals Real Madrid before the international break.
However, both matches were away games, and we cannot overlook their phenomenal home form—six consecutive home wins and just three losses in 17 home games this season (W14). Plus, just two months ago, they thrashed Barcelona at this very stadium.
The Blaugrana have also picked up the pace recently, with seven wins in their last eight matches (D1). They currently lead Real Madrid by four points in the standings with nine rounds remaining, so every point is crucial in the title race.
Atletico have secured a spot in the Top 4 with a 13-point lead over the fifth-place team, so the win isn’t quite as essential for them.
How the bookies view it: Barcelona with the edge again
Although Atletico Madrid won at this stadium less than two months ago, bookmakers still believe that Barcelona have the better chance in this upcoming match.
Currently, you can bet on Atletico at 21/10, the draw at 5/2, or Barcelona at 5/4.
Recent head-to-head: The Blaugrana lead two to one this season
This is clearly going to be the most-played derby between Spanish teams this season; we’ve already seen three matches, with three more to go.
So far, every clash has been spectacular, with the home team winning convincingly in all three. Barcelona won twice, 3-0 and 3-1, while Atletico won at home 4-0.
However, looking at the longer-term results, Barcelona has seven wins in the last 10 matches, including in four of their last five trips to the Metropolitano.
Players to watch: Lewangolski to take his anger out on Atletico
Robert Lewandowski suffered a major disappointment last week when Poland failed to qualify for the World Cup in the final playoff. But we expect him to come back stronger, and what better match than this one against Atletico.
The legendary striker has two goals and two assists in his last two visits to the Metropolitano (he was injured when Barcelona lost two months ago). With Raphina out with an injury, we can expect Lewandowski to play the full 90 minutes.
Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.
Probable line-ups
Atletico Madrid: Musso, Ruggeri, Hancko, Normand, Molina, Lookman, Griezmann, Koke, Baena, Simeone, Alvarez
Barcelona: Garcia, Cancelo, Martin, Cubarsi, Garcia, Bernal, Pedri, Rashford, Lopez, Yamal, Lewandowski
Anything else catch the eye?
Atletico have been an undeniable goal-scoring machine in recent months, scoring at least two goals in seven of their last 10 matches and at least three in five of those 10.
But at the same time, their defense is far from impressive, having conceded at least two goals in seven of those 10 matches. We definitely plan to bet on goals, as the combination of Both Teams to Score (BTTS) & Over 2.5 goals offers good odds, but we won’t chase a winner.
Barcelona probably do have a better chance, but we wouldn’t risk it at this stage. Instead, we can place a few bets based on the statistics from the three matches so far.
Over 9.5 corners looks like a good option, given the 9, 13, and 15 corners in the matches between the two teams this season.
Also, Betano is offering 11/20 for over 12.5 shots for Barcelona, and they had 21, 19, and 14 in their previous meetings.
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