Aston Villa host Newcastle United at Villa Park on Saturday in the Premier League’s early kick-off, with both sides beginning the new campaign harbouring ambitions of pushing into the top four.
Villa were formidable at home last season, taking forty points from nineteen games, losing only once. Their underlying numbers were equally strong, with the second-highest home xPTS (37.48) and excellent penalty-box control, allowing just 5.53 shots in the box per game. Despite that dominance, they had the joint-highest both teams to score rate in the league at 74%, often conceding in matches they controlled. Unai Emery has been tasked with reshaping the squad after key loanees Marco Asensio, Marcus Rashford, and Axel Disasi returned to their parent clubs.
Newcastle arrive off the back of ending a seventy-year domestic trophy drought by lifting the EFL Cup and securing a fifth-place finish. They were the tenth-best away side last season, picking up twenty-eight points, but their shot profile showed they conceded more in dangerous areas than they created, with a -1.06 SiB (shots in the box) differential. Their away xPTS of 29.10 ranked fifth, pointing to good game management and finishing efficiency. Eddie Howe has strengthened with the £55m signing of Anthony Elanga, but speculation surrounds Alexander Isak after forty-four league goals in two seasons, and he will be missing here.
Both clubs enter the campaign with European football ahead with Villa in the Europa League and Newcastle in the Champions League. Villa will look to maintain their home dominance, while Newcastle aim to show they can win on the road against top-half opposition. With both squads undergoing changes, this opener offers an early test of whether their summer work has been enough to close the gap to the league’s elite.
How the bookies view it: Goals at both ends
Aston Villa are priced at 132/100 to win, which implies a 43.1% chance of victory, while Newcastle are 21/10 with a 32.3% chance, and the draw is 27/10, equating to a 27.0% likelihood. The goal markets show a clear expectation for an open game, with Over 2.5 Goals at 4/6 carrying a 60.0% implied probability, and both teams to score at 11/20 suggesting a 64.5% chance that both teams find the net. These numbers align closely with last season’s data, where Villa’s home both teams to score rate was 74% and Newcastle’s away figure was 58%, while both teams hit over 2.5 Goals in 58% of their respective home or away matches.
Head to Head: Home record strong for Villa
Aston Villa and Newcastle’s recent head-to-head record has been relatively balanced, though with strong home advantages for each side. In the last 10 Premier League meetings, Newcastle have won five, Villa four, with one draw. Goals have been a frequent feature with eight of those 10 matches went over 2.5 goals, and six saw both teams score. The more one-sided score lines, such as Newcastle’s 5-1 and 4-0 wins or Villa’s 4-1 and 3-0 victories, mean that when either side gets on top, they often win by a margin.
At Villa Park, the hosts have generally had the upper hand. Villa have won four of the last five league meetings on home soil, including the 4-1 success in April 2025 and a 3-0 victory in April 2023. Their only home defeat to Newcastle in that period was a 3-1 loss in January 2024. These games at Villa Park have also been high-scoring with four of the last five have gone over 2.5 goals, and three have seen both teams to score land.
This pattern points to an open, goal-filled contest when these sides meet, particularly in Birmingham, where Villa’s attacking numbers have translated into consistent results against the Magpies.
Players to watch: Bruno to get banged up
Bruno Guimaraes looks a strong candidate to be fouled three or more times when Newcastle visit Aston Villa. Last season, he was the most fouled player in the Premier League, drawing 108 fouls in 38 games and at least one in 97% of matches. On the road, he suffered 53 fouls in 19 games, hitting 3+ in 63% of those, and in high intensity fixtures against top seven sides, he drew 17 fouls in six matches, with 3+ in four of them.
Villa’s midfield under Unai Emery is physical and combative, with John McGinn and Boubacar Kamara both aggressive in the challenge. In last season’s meeting at Villa Park, Guimaraes was fouled once but committed five fouls, showing how physical battles in midfield can be in this fixture. His role as the key link in transition means Villa’s press will naturally funnel towards him. Given his track record, the quality and style of Villa’s midfield, and the likelihood of a high tempo battle, Guimaraes to suffer three or more fouls is a realistic and data backed betting angle.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Martinez; Rowe, Konsa, Torres, Maatsen; Kamara, Tielemans; Bailey, McGinn, Rogers; Watkins
Newcastle United (4-3-3): Pope; Trippier, Schar, Burn, Hall; Guimaraes, Tonali, Joelinton; Elanga, Gordon, Barnes
Anything else catch the eye?
The numbers point strongly towards a game with goals at both ends. Newcastle’s away matches last season averaged 2.77 xG, with their attack producing 1.50 xG per game and their defence allowing 1.27. Their tendency to concede decent chances was reflected in allowing 8.32 shots in the box per match on the road.
Villa’s home games averaged 2.78 xG, with their attack among the most efficient in creating clear opportunities. They averaged 9.79 shots in the box per home game, translating into consistent scoring output. Newcastle’s defensive record away from home with five clean sheets from nineteen games, suggesting they will likely concede here.
From a chance quality perspective, both sides created over 1.5 xG in more than half of their respective home or away fixtures last season, underlining their ability to generate sustained threat. In terms of shot accuracy, Newcastle averaged over four shots on target per away match, while Villa matched that at home, adding to the likelihood of goals.
Big chances were a theme for both. Newcastle converted and conceded at least one big chance in the majority of their away fixtures, while Villa’s home matches followed a similar pattern, reinforcing the probability of both teams finding the net.
With Newcastle’s summer addition of Anthony Elanga adding pace and directness, and Villa still spearheaded by Ollie Watkins, who has scored in each of his last four home league games against the Magpies, there is enough quality in the final third to make Over 2.5 Goals and both teams to score a high-probability outcome. This combination builds on both teams’ proven attacking output and defensive vulnerability, rather than relying on either side to dominate completely.
GambleAware