Aston Villa welcome Bologna to Villa Park on Thursday night in the Europa League. It is a fixture that pits two sides with very different European pedigrees against each other, and it comes at a time when both are looking to stamp authority on their campaigns.
For Villa, the start to the domestic season has been a struggle. They sit 18th in the Premier League xPTS table with only 3.13, underlining how performances have matched poor results. Their attack has misfired, scoring just once despite creating 3.7 xG, and they have been reliant on volume rather than quality to carve chances. Injuries have not helped, with Youri Tielemans and Amadou Onana both ruled out. Supporters know the club needs momentum, and the Europa League has often provided that outlet under Unai Emery.
Bologna, meanwhile, come in from a steadier if unspectacular Serie A start. They are 12th in the xPTS rankings on 3.8, slightly above their actual points return, but their numbers hint at a side not creating enough. With only 3.4 xG in four matches, their attack has lacked sharpness, though they have been efficient at home. Away from home, the story is far less convincing: in Serie A this season they have lost both away games without scoring, and last season’s Champions League record saw them take just two points from four group matches on the road, scoring only once.
Both clubs have off-field narratives too. Villa’s ownership and Emery’s European credentials add weight to expectations, while Bologna are bedding in after a summer of steady squad building. With absentees on both sides, and Villa desperate to correct underperformance, the scene is set for a tense European night under the lights at Villa Park.
How the bookies view it: Villa favourites
Bookmakers make Aston Villa the favourites at 17/20, which carries an implied probability of around 54%. Bologna are priced at 7/2, or roughly 22%, while the draw at 13/5 equates to about 28%.
The goals markets look tight, with over 2.5 goals available at even money (50%) and both teams to score trading at 10/11, an implied chance of 52%.
The pricing reflects confidence in Villa’s home advantage under Unai Emery but also recognises their attacking struggles and Bologna’s tendency to keep matches tight, leaving the goal expectancy balanced almost exactly at a coin flip.
Head to Head: Only second meeting
In October 2024, Aston Villa hosted Bologna in the Champions League group stage and ran out 2-0 winners at Villa Park. Emery’s side controlled the game, found two goals, and kept a clean sheet, underlining both their European pedigree and their ability to handle Bologna at home.
Players to watch: Orsolini to cause Villa concern
Riccardo Orsolini looks a strong bet for at least one shot on target against Aston Villa. The winger has started all four of Bologna’s league games this season and is their clear attacking outlet, scoring twice and attempting 11 shots, with five hitting the target.
That works out at 2.8 shots per game and 1.25 shots on target per 90, comfortably above the line. His underlying numbers also back it up: he has generated 1.5 xG and 0.8 non-penalty xG, showing that he consistently gets into good shooting positions rather than relying on low-quality efforts.
Importantly, Bologna funnel play into him, with 80 progressive passes received already, the highest in the side. Against a Villa defence that concedes 12.8 shots per game, Orsolini should see enough opportunities to test Emiliano Martinez at least once across the ninety minutes.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Mings, Digne, Kamara, McGinn, Buendia, Rogers, Sancho, Watkins
Bologna (4-2-3-1): Skorupski, De Silvestri, Vitik, Heggem, Miranda, Freuler, Moro, Orsolini, Bernardeschi, Dominguez, Castro
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Aston Villa to win and under 3.5 goals looks the smartest play in this clash with Bologna.
Villa’s attack has been misfiring domestically, but the underlying numbers suggest they are not far away from correcting. They average 10.4 shots per game and 2.4 on target, yet their finishing has been dreadful: one goal from 52 attempts, a conversion rate of just 1.9%. That is backed by a -2.7 goals vs xG figure, the worst in the Premier League. Regression should come, and facing Bologna’s away defence offers the chance.
Bologna’s record on the road in Europe is a concern. They have not won any of their last six away matches in continental competition, failing to score in five of those. Last season’s Champions League saw them produce just 0.7 xG per game away from home, while conceding 1.25 xG on average. This season the trend has continued with 0 goals from 0.8 xG across two away fixtures.
Villa’s strength lies in control. They allow 12.8 shots per game but have limited opponents to an average xG/shot of 0.08, meaning most efforts are low value. That containment suits a tactical manager like Unai Emery, whose record in this competition is unmatched: four titles, three with Sevilla and one with Villarreal. With Villa he has already beaten Bayern Munich, Juventus, PSG, and Bologna at Villa Park in European play, underlining his ability to prepare sides for these nights.
All signs point towards a home win, but not a goal glut. Bologna rarely open up, while Villa are still trying to restore cutting edge. A controlled Emery performance, a narrow win, and a score line under four goals feels the most logical outcome given the data and the history.
GambleAware