Albania face England on Sunday in Group K qualifying at the Air Albania Stadium in Tirana, a meeting between two sides who have taken very different paths through the campaign but both arrive in good form.
England come into the match with a perfect record with W7-D0-L0 scoring twenty goals scored and none conceded. Their performances have matched the results, built on control, structure and a stable four two three one shape.
They average close to twenty shots per ninety with eight on target, while opponents have produced only three shots on target in total across the entire group. With Kane captaining every game and the tempo unchanged throughout qualifying, England’s xPTS profile reflects their complete dominance.
Albania approach the fixture from a position of strength as well. They sit second on fourteen points after four wins, two draws and one defeat. Their record is built on discipline rather than high-volume attacking play. They have kept five clean sheets in seven matches and conceded only three goals, which underlines how dependable their goalkeeper and back line have been.
Albania’s attacking process is measured, with seven goals from fifty five shots and twenty shots on target, but they manage games well and stay competitive through structure.
The earlier meeting between the two sides finished two nil to England, and Albania created very little in that match. Their results since have followed the same pattern: tight margins, low scoring games and performances shaped by defensive organisation. England have shown no signs of letting standards slip, and Albania have shown no signs of opening up against elite opposition.
Sunday’s match in Tirana arrives with the group already decided, but there is still plenty on the line. Albania want to finish qualifying strongly and secure second place. England want to complete a perfect campaign. Both sides arrive in form, but the gap in chance creation and overall process remains clear.
How the bookies view it: Three Lions strong favourites
Bookmakers make England clear favourites for Sunday’s qualifier in Tirana. Priced at 2/5, the implied probability of an away victory is around 71%, which reflects their perfect record in the group and their 9-0 aggregate across the last three meetings with Albania.
Albania are 15/2, giving them an implied chance of roughly 12%. The draw is listed at 19/5, which converts to an implied probability of about 21%. That captures the possibility of a tight, low-tempo final round fixture, though Albania’s limited attacking output makes that outcome difficult to support.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals at 3/4 carries an implied probability of around 57%, pointing towards England having enough to force the game above that line. Both teams to score is available at 1/1, or 50%, but the past meetings make that look optimistic given Albania have not scored in any of the recent clashes.
Head to Head: England on top with perfect record
England’s recent head-to-head record against Albania in World Cup qualifying is completely one sided, and the scorelines tell the story clearly. Across the last three meetings England have won all three, scoring nine goals without conceding once.
The most recent clash in March 2025 finished 2-0 at Wembley, a controlled performance where Albania struggled to create any meaningful threat. Before that came the 5-0 victory in 2021, England’s largest winning margin in the recent sequence and a game that underlined the gulf in attacking quality.
The only recent meeting in Tirana followed the same pattern. England travelled there in 2021 and secured a 2-0 win, again keeping Albania at arm’s length throughout the ninety minutes. The combined 9-0 aggregate reflects complete dominance in both boxes.
Players to watch: Bellingham back with a bang
Jude Bellingham to record one or more shots on target is supported by everything we have seen from him in qualifying, in his domestic form and even in his short cameo against Serbia.
England are already through, so rotation from Thomas Tuchel is expected, and that increases the likelihood of Bellingham starting in an advanced role. When he has played higher up in qualifying he has been productive, taking thirteen shots with five on target.
He produced three attempts with two on target against Albania and followed that with three shots and three on target in Andorra, showing how naturally he moves into shooting positions.
His brief time on the pitch against Serbia was another positive sign. He picked the ball up deep, carried it confidently into the opposition half and linked well with Phil Foden and Eberechi Eze, which only strengthens the case for him to start.
Bellingham will also be keen to show Tuchel that he should play ahead of Morgan Rogers, and this is the sort of fixture that gives him the platform to do that. He has shown he can be disciplined in that central role, keeping the structure while still offering control and quality on the ball. If he delivers the level of energy he is capable of he can become a key figure for the team.
His domestic numbers continue the same theme. Since returning from injury he has played six matches across La Liga and the Champions League and produced sixteen shots with ten on target. With England expected to dominate possession and Bellingham likely to have licence to step forward, one shot on target looks a fair line.
Predicted line-ups
Albania (4-2-3-1): Strakosha, Hysaj, Ajeti, Djimsiti, Mitaj, Shehu, Asllani, Broja, Laci, Hoxha, Daku
England (4-2-3-1): Henderson, Spence, Konsa, Burn, O’Reilly, Henderson, Wharton, Bowen, Bellingham, Eze, Foden
Anything else catch the eye?
England to win and under 3.5 goals stands out strongly. England have seven wins from seven, scoring twenty and conceding none. That clean sheet record is backed by process. Across the campaign they have allowed only three shots on target and opposition shot volume has stayed minimal in every match.
Their approach has been controlled rather than explosive, reflected in five wins landing under three goals. They rarely lose structure and their chance creation comes from sustained pressure rather than chaotic spells.
Albania’s style reinforces the angle. They have conceded only three goals in seven qualifiers and kept five clean sheets. Their games tend to stay narrow and defensive shape is a clear priority. They allow just twenty shots on target across the entire group, and most matches land in low scoring ranges. Even in their wins the margins have never been large, with no game producing more than three goals.
England’s attack produces high volume, with almost twenty shots per ninety and eight on target, but Albania’s defensive resilience and the slow tempo of both sides makes four goals a stretch. England won the reverse meeting 2-0 and Albania have not scored against them in either meeting.
England should control the match, Albania should resist, and the profile points clearly to a disciplined, low scoring England win.
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