AC Milan closed the gap to their archrival Inter Milan with a hard-fought win away at Como and now aim to win back-to-back games when they meet struggling Lecce on Sunday.
The Rossoneri produced one of their worst overall performances of the season against Como, but won due to the individual brilliance of Adrien Rabiot and Mike Maignan. The French keeper saved them on multiple occasions, while Rabiot earned a penalty and then scored a brace for the 3-1 win.
AC Milan made too many mistakes in recent weeks, so Massimiliano Allegri will be pleased to face the team in the worst form in the league, Lecce.
The Salentians will travel to Milan for the second time this week, following their previous round match against Inter Milan. The 1-0 defeat was their fourth loss in five games, and Lecce are now just three points clear of the drop zone.
The problems run deep in Lecce, as the Salentians are struggling with every aspect of the game. Their defence is one of the leakiest in the league, while their attack is the least productive with 13 goals scored in 20 games.
How the bookies view it: The Rossoneri will claim the spoils
Lecce are once again in their usual position as significant underdogs, although bookmakers see more chance of a surprise win than in their last match against Inter.
However, the differences are significant, with AC Milan at 3/10 and Lecce at 12/1. Even a draw looks less likely than usual when priced at 4/1.
Recent head-to-head: Almost 20 years since Lecce’s last win
Almost 20 years have passed since the last time Lecce beat AC Milan in any competition. The last such instance was in April 2006, when the Salentians won 1-0 at home.
Since then, the Rossoneri have dominated the rivalry, winning 11 of the 16 meetings (D5). They also won 9 of the last 10 home games against Lecce (D1). And when it comes to goals, Milan have scored 2+ goals in 14 consecutive home games against the Yellow and Reds.
Players to watch: Nkunku scored four goals in the last three matches
Adrien Rabiot obviously took the spotlight against Como, but he is not a player to depend on week in, week out. Right now, that is Christopher Nkunku, who finally found his form after joining AC Milan in the summer.
Although his goal against Como came through a penalty, it was his fourth in his last three appearances. Bookies still put a good price on him to score, so we should take advantage.
Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.
Probable line-ups
AC Milan: Maignan, Winter, Tomori, Pavlovic, Bartesaghi, Rabiot, Modric, Loftus-Cheek, Saelemaekers, Nkunku, Leao
Lecce: Falcone, Veiga, Gabriel, Gaspar, Gallo, Maleh, Ramadani, Kaba, Pierotti, Stulic, Banda
Anything else catch the eye?
With Lecce being the lowest-scoring side in the league, we do not expect AC Milan to concede in this match. The odds are not ideal, but a great addition when combined with a home win bet.
If you want a safer line, AC Milan & Under 4.5 is the safest option, at least statistically. Not one of the Rossoneri’s home games this season has produced more than four goals, so if it happens, it would be unprecedented.
Additionally, we find the 13/20 for Under 4.5 cards to be a great option too. AC Milan and Lecce have not had more than four cards in any of their last five H2Hs.
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